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IR-Reporting an das Management „Tue Gutes und rede darüber“Praxisbeispiel Deutsche Telekom, S. Eger & M. Göddertz
2
IR REPORTING AN DAS MANAGEMENT ZENTRALE FRAGESTELLUNGEN
1 Wie muss ein gutes Top-Management IR-Reporting aussehen?
2 Welche Informationen braucht das Top-Management zur Beurteilung und Einschätzung der Leistung einer IR-Abteilung?
3
5 Praxisbericht Deutsche Telekom IR-Team
Welche Informationen braucht das Top-Management zum Abschneiden des Unternehmens am Kapitalmarkt?
4 Wie, wann und wem gegenüber sollte dies kommuniziert/präsentiert werden?
3
Darstellung der Aktivitäten des Unternehmensbereiches Investor Relations, wie z.B. Vertriebsplanung, -
steuerung und -leistung, Erfassung der Erwartungen des Marktes an das Unternehmen, Update zu Sonderthemen wie HV, Kapitalmarkttag, etc.
Update an das Managements über die wichtigsten Ereignisse an den Börsen, Erwartungshaltung/Feedback des Kapitalmarktes an das Unternehmen und bedeutende Entwicklungen im Aktionariat
Einbindung des Vorstandes bei geplanten Vertriebsaktivitäten, Detailabstimmungen zur Equity-Story, Besprechung der nächsten Schritte bei Großprojekten
Vorstand
ZIEL DES AUSTAUSCHES MIT DEM VORSTAND ENGE UND REGELMÄßIGE ABSTIMMUNGEN SEHR WICHTIG
11 22
33
4
KERNELEMENTE UNSERES IR REPORTINGS FOKUS AUF 5 THEMENKOMPLEXE
Deutsche Telekom IR SEMI-ANNUAL BOARD REPORTING
Kurs-
und TSR-
Entwicklung über verschiedene Zeiträume
Analyse der Wettbewerberperfor
mance im Vergleich zur eigenen Kursentwicklung unter Berücksichtigung des Marktumfeldes
Darstellung kursrelevanter Ereignisse
Performance
Entwicklung der Analystenempfehlu
gen von der Deutschen Telekom im Vergleich zum Wettbewerb
Entwicklung von marktüblichen Ratios wie z.B. EV/EBITDA, FCF Yield und P/E ratios
Bewertung
Umfangreiche Darstellung der Markterwartungen bezüglich wichtiger Finanzkennzahlen für verschiedene Zeiträume
Abweichungs-
analyse der Markterwartungen vs. interner Planzahlen bzw. erwarteten Ergebnissen
Erwartungen
Größte Zu-
und Abverkäufe im abgelaufenen Quartal
Umfassende Analyse der Veränderungen im Aktionariat
Darstellung der Ergebnisse des aktuellen Targetings (Top Chancen vs. größte Risiken); Länder-Deep-Dives
Investoren
Darstellung der aktuellen Vertriebsaktivitäten (Calls vs. Roadshows vs. Conferences)
Kundenfeedback zu IR Aktivitäten wie z.B. Kapitalmarkttag
Vorstellung von IR Sonderprojekten wie z.B. Bereichsumbau
Aktivitäten
PRAXISBEISPIEL DEUTSCHE TELEKOM
6
STRUCTURE SEMI-ANNUAL BOARD REPORTING ON IR ACTIVITIES AND EFFICIENCY
DT vs. Peers Today and Previous Year DT Valuation vs. Sector
DT Share price performance vs. Peers FY 2012 and YTD Share Price development and influencing factors Jan and Feb 2013
Status
Analyst Recommendations Status
1 Share Price Performance Status
2 Analyst Recommendations Status
Consensus overview Q4, FY12, FY13
Shareholder Structure, Movements and Investment Style Investor Targets and Regions Targeting Activities 2013
Status
3 Q4/12 Communication: Consensus Management Status
4 Investor Targeting Status
IR Activities Status Review Activities 2012 CMD 2012 Review IR 2013 post SHQ
5 IR Activities Status
SHARE PERFORMANCE
8
TSR DEVELOPMENT 02 Jan 2012 –
24 May 2013. THE TELCO SECTOR HAS LAGGED BEHIND THE OVERALL MARKET
Source: Factset.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
02 Jan 12
21 Jan 12
09 Feb 12
28 Feb 12
18 Mar 12
06 Apr 12
25 Apr 12
14 May 12
02 Jun 12
21 Jun 12
10 Jul 12
29 Jul 12
17 Aug 12
05 Sep 12
24 Sep 12
13 Oct 12
01 Nov 12
20 Nov 12
09 Dec 12
28 Dec 12
16 Jan 13
04 Feb 13
23 Feb 13
14 Mar 13
02 Apr 13
21 Apr 13
10 May 13
18.0% DT
67.4% BT
(25.2%) FT
(68.2%) KPN
(18.8%) TI(16.4%) TEF
17.1% VOD
36.7% DAX
23.5% Stoxx 50
4.9% DJ Telcos
24 May 13
9
SHARE PRICE DEVELOPMENT JAN 2013. SHARE PRICES IN THE TELCO SECTOR BROADLY INCREASED IN LINE WITH MARKET
Source: Factset.
Drivers
▲
Investor interest in the European fixed line regulatory environment picked up (discussion around a pan European network)
▲
Strong results from Verizon Wireless
▲
Falling credit spreads and overall short-term positive telco market sentiment
Telco Sector
Press speculation suggests that DT is considering a disposal of Scout24
▼
Worry that the announced T-Mobile US capex increase is not enough to improve coverage and negative read across from Verizon Wireless results (market share gains)
▼
EE signed an MVNO agreement with Phones4U on both 3G and 4G; seen as a negative giving up the 4G USP so early
DT
2.3% DJ Telcos
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
02 Jan 13
07 Jan 13
13 Jan 13
19 Jan 13
25 Jan 13
31 Jan 13
3.4% DT
4.8% BT
(1.7%) FT
11.0% KPN
4.3% TI
2.0% TEF
9.3% VOD
(0.0%) DAX(0.3%) Stoxx 50
04 JanDT -
Extensive cooperation
concluded with Sky
23 JanRating agency JCR lowers TEF
long-term rating from A outlook
negative to A-
outlook negative
10
SHARE PRICE DEVELOPMENT FEB 2013. NEGATIVE RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENTS IN THE TELCO SECTOR AND INCREASED
M&A
Source: Factset.
Drivers
▲
Liberty Global bid for Virgin Media, Vodafone interest in KDG
▲
Speculation around AT&T interest to acquire European player
▼
Negative KPN results and cap increase
▼
Vodafone results below expectations, indicating tougher pricing environment
Telco Sector
▲
Speculation on EE: PE interest and IPO plans▼
KPN announced additional commercial investments for E-Plus in 2013; VOD aims to increase market share in Germany
▼
Negative reaction to VOD / KDG rumors▼
Concerns around amount of leverage at T-Mobile US / MetroPCS merger (Paulson)
▼
TPSA profit warning raising concerns over Eastern European Telco
assets, with negative read across for DT
DT
(3.9%) DJ Telcos
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
01 Feb 13
03 Feb 13
05 Feb 13
07 Feb 13
09 Feb 13
11 Feb 13
13 Feb 13
15 Feb 13
(9.2%) DT
4.0% BT
(9.7%) FT
(21.2%) KPN
(15.7%) TI
(6.9%) TEF
(3.3%) VOD(3.1%) DAX
(3.5%) Stoxx 50
08 FebDT reaffirms
commitment
to US Merger
01 FebBT Q3 2012
resultspublished
07 FebVOD release of interim
management statementfor Q4 12
07 FebTI FY 12
preliminary results08 Feb
Update of TI’s2013-2015 plan approved
05 FebKPN FY 12 results published
and capital increase announcement
15 FebFT –
Agreement to
dispose 20% stake
in Sonaecom
ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS/ VALUATION
12
ANALYSTS VIEW DEACREASING BUY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TELCO SECTOR
Source:
Factset. Data as per 24 May 2013.
38.9
%
40.0
%
56.3
%
71.0
%
50.0
% 57.7
%
42.5
%
40.5
%
46.2
%
47.1
%
35.5
% 45.7
%
20.0
%
36.4
%
41.7
%
42.5
%
31.3
% 16.1
%
45.5
%
30.8
%
35.0
%
42.9
% 42.3
%
41.2
%
38.7
%
34.3
%
53.3
%
39.4
%
19.4
%
17.5
%
12.5
%
12.9
% 4.5%
11.5
%
22.5
%
16.7
%
11.5
%
11.8
%
25.8
%
20.0
%
26.7
%
24.2
%
Buy Hold Sell
Today -1 Year Today -1 Year Today -1 Year Today -1 Year Today -1 Year Today -1 Year Today -1 Year
DT VOD BT TEF TI FT KPN
13
MULTIPLE OVERVIEW DT VALUATION ABOVE AVERAGE IN 2013 & 2014
Source:
Company information, Factset. Data as per 24 May, 2013.Note:
AFCF is defined as EBITDA less capex, FCF is defined as AFCF less net interest expense and taxes.Vodafone has been adjusted for the their stake in Verizon Wireless.
4.8x
6.3x
4.9x
4.6x
4.1x
4.0x
3.8x
4.7x
6.2x
4.9x
4.5x
4.1x
4.1x
3.8x
DT BT TEF VOD KPN FT TI
Mean '13: 4.6xMean '14: 4.6x
10.7
x
10.7
x
9.9x
9.5x
9.1x
7.3x
7.0x
9.7x
10.7
x
8.3x
9.3x
9.7x
7.6x
6.8x
DT BT TEF VOD KPN FT TI
Mean '13: 8.9xMean '14: 8.7x
12.2
%
27.1
%
21.6
%
13.2
%
12.6
%
9.3%
8.2%
13.5
% 23
.4%
23.2
%
12.2
%
16.6
%
9.5%
8.0%
DT FT TI KPN TEF BT VOD
Mean '13: 15.3%Mean '14: 15.5%
12.4
x
12.7
x
12.4
x
10.3
x
9.5x
7.3x
5.3x
12.1
x
11.7
x
11.7
x
9.5x
9.5x
7.8x
5.3x
DT BT VOD TEF KPN FT TI
Mean '13: 9.6xMean '14: 9.2x
FCF Yield
EV / EBITDA
2013 2014
P/E
EV / AFCF
Q4 COMMUNICATION / CONSENSUS MANAGEMENT
15
Q4 2012 FY 2012
CONSENSUS DASHBOARD Q4 2012 AND FY 2012 ADJ. EBITDA AND ADJ. NET INCOME BELOW CONSENSUS
INVESTOR TARGETING
17
Q4: X , Y AND Z NEW IN TOP 10 NO. B INVESTOR NO LONGER SHAREHOLDER, TOP TEN CONCENTRATION DOWN BY MORE THAN 3PP
Investor 5 -10.9
Investor 4 -14.3
Investor 3 -17.6
Investor 2 -22.1
Investor 1 -55.0
Investor 10
Investor 9
Investor 8
Investor 7
Investor 6
Investor 5
Investor 4
Investor 3
Investor 2
Investor 1
1.191.191.27
1.41
1.51
1.77
1.88
1.96
2.40
2.56
In % of F/F
8.1
8.7
11.0
14.2
15.4 Investor 1
Top10 hold 17.1% of free float5 largest buyer1 5 largest seller1
in million shares bought in million shares sold
1.4m
∆
Shares1
10.9m
8.1m
2.9m
2.9m
11.0m
7.2m
15.4m
4.2m
2.8m
1within Q4/2012* company-related shareholder (not considered in free float)
3.1%
Investor 2
Investor 3
Investor 4
Investor 5
18
DT SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE AND STYLE 4PP DROP OF VALUE INVESTORS, INCREASE OF INDEX AND RETAIL
INVESTORS
Share of identified investors: 94.0%
North America dropped by 1.3pp mainly due to B, which cleared its position completely
Concentration of institutional capital dropped -1.1pp
Rising share of Retail investors +1.8pp
UK position up by 2.2pp mainly due to X, Y and Z
France down by 0.9pp; Switzerland decreased 0.4pp
Index investors up by almost 4pp
On the contrary, yield investors down by around 4pp
Trading
17,0
Retail
Bund
KfW
Unidentified
3,5
6,0
18,2
15,0
40,3
CH
19,1
23,7
Rest of Europe
Germany
5,4
15,0
France
USA/Canada
17,1
13,2
6,4
UK
Rest of World
In % of S/OIn % Institutional
As of 31 December 2012 68% of total shares are floated FY Trends
26,7
10,6
2,9
54,0
Others5,8
Value
Growth
Index
Yield
Regional Structure Style
19
Top destination is London with one third of all potential investors and 54% of capital
24% of investors in US, with 17% of total buying power, but US targets
widespread across the country. The highest underweight volume can be found on the West and East Coast.
Minor gaps in Nordic and Spain
Since German is OW in DT again no gaps to close, but retention focus required. The same applies for France and Benelux
2%
3%
5%
8%
2%
Edinburgh
4%
UK Misc
3%
Ilmarinen (Finnland)
1%
Madrid
South
3%
Westcoast
5%
Boston
6% New York
6%D Misc
3%
Frankfurt5%
London31%
1%
Brüssel
1%Oslo
1%Stockholm
Amsterdam/The Haque
Zürich
Paris
Singapore1%
TokyoBejing
1%
Rockies
1%
Midwest
1%
Mid Atlantic
2%
6%
4%
11%
FranceCH
3%Germany
Other
North America
17%
UK54%
5%
Asia
1Covers all targets with a gap to fair share > $50m, excluding passive investors 2Buying Power is defined as the investment of a investor into the
Telco peer group x fair share of DT in that group
Relevant destinations (in % of investors)1 Relevant regions (in % of buying power 2) 1
INVESTOR TARGETING LONDON REMAINS THE PLACE TO GO IN 2013
20
Investor 12-362
Investor 11-353
Investor 10-325
Investor 9-216
Investor 8-209
Investor 7-190
Investor 6-182
Investor 5-164
Investor 4-162
Investor 3-155
Investor 2-132
Investor 1-118
Investor 15-511
Investor 14-505
Investor 13-422
Shareholder Rank1 Shareholder Rank1Turnover2
120
125
126
130
130
135
142
154
154
168
265
273
310
449
Target 15
Target 14
Target 13
Target 12
Target 11
Target 10
Target 9
Target 8
Target 5
Target 7
Target 6
Target 4
Target 3
Target 2
Target 1 984
Triple Fits23%
22%
25%
25%
39%
30%
23%
6%
27%
18%
34%
37%
24%
50%
14%
Q4 Best Fit
-
INVESTOR TARGETING BIGGEST TARGETS AND RETAINERS
24
Double Fits
Gap to fair share
Attract -
Best fits by highest underweight volume (in $mm) Retain -
Best fits by highest overweight volume (in $mm)
115
421
103
-
86
2
65
215
45
-
145
-
-
- 5
4
8
7
12
6
13
16
15
18
26
20
22
31
32
1based on the amount of shares hold (only institutional investors), red
indicates a lower rank than previous quarter, green
a higher rank compared to Q3/20122based on the investors’
turnover for all equity assets hold
21
TRANSLATION INTO IR ACTIVITIES FOR 2013*
Benelux
Citi Annual IMT, Las Vegas
Commerzbank German Invest; NY
LBBW Forum, Stuttgart
Citi Telco Conf, London
Conferences Roadshows
Q1
Group via Nomura
Group via Morgan Stanley
SRI Call Generali -
IR
Group via Newstreet
Highfields -
IR
Q2
JP Morgan TMT, Boston
SocGen Telco, Paris
ML TMT, London
Exane BNP Seminar, Paris
Santander TMT
Eastcoast or FFM& Zurich
London or FFM & LND
Edingburgh & Dublin
London
Germany
Austria & Switzerland
Nordic
Group via Exane
Q3
Commerzbank Sector Conf
DB TMT, London
Credit Suisse, London
GS German Corp, Munich
GS Communacopia, NY
Q2 results
Q2 results
Spain -
IR
Group via JP Morgan
Q4
Sanford Bernstein, London
MS TMT, Barcelona
Paris
Mailand
Spain
London
Investormeetings
*Status as of 01.02.2013
IR ACTIVITIES
23
108 Events- 21 Roadshows
-
25 Conferences
-
62 Investor Meetings
96 Events-
41 Roadshows
-
23 Conferences
-
32 Investor Meetings
Textbox Headline 165 Events
-
22 Roadshows
-
18 Conferences
-
125 Investor Meetings
Steep increase of investor meetings (investor calls) -> increased efficiency and reduced travel expenses
Focus on most important conferences; ‘less is more’
2010 2011 2012
IR ACTIVITY STATISTICS 2010 -
2012 CONSTANT INCREASE OF ACTIVITIES
24
BITTE RUFEN SIE UNS BEI RÜCKFRAGEN AN!
Markus Göddertz, Vice President IRStephan Eger, Senior Vice President IR
Telefon: 0228 181-88160E-Mail: markus.goeddertz@telekom.de
Telefon: 0228 181-88338E-Mail: stephan.eger@telekom.de
VIELEN DANK!
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