rheinisch-westfälisches institut für wirtschaftsforschung 1 8. 6. 2004 rüdiger budde analysis...
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Analysis with Remi Policy Insight Analysis with Remi Policy Insight in Nordrhein Westfalen – in Nordrhein Westfalen –
Including Sensitivity ExperimentsIncluding Sensitivity Experiments
Rüdiger BuddeRüdiger BuddeRWI-EssenRWI-Essen
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Agenda
• Introductory remarks• Specifia of the "Nordrhein Westfalen" modell• Selecting an industrial strategy• Quantifying the potential effects• Conclusions
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Northrhine - Westphalia
Ruhr area
Federal Republic of Germany
Neighbouringcountries
Specifis of the "Nordrhein Westfalen" Model
Oberhausen
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List of Projects with the REMI model
“Effects of the Metrorapid Railway in Nordrhein-Westfalen”
3 Studies on the impact on new industrial sites on the local economy and its neighbourhood
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City of Oberhausen (current situation)
• 220 000 inhabitants• Lies in the heart of the Ruhr-area• In 1987 7% of the employees were occupied in the steel
industry• In 2002 90% of the jobs in the steel industry were
vanished• Due to industrial changes huge brown fields emerged• First successful settlements while restructuring the
service sector• High unemployment rate (11%)• Objective 2 area up to 2006
(This status might be prolonged.)
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The Regional Economic Strategy
To develop the new industrial site
• Maximize the potential employment that can be settled on the available brown field.
• Prevent harmful competition between old industries and new settlers.
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Alternative facilities of operating a commercial site
stores specialized in
retail trade
industrial park with a focus on
traditional services
industrial park with a focus on
services for enterprises
industrial park with a focus on
health-care including
manufacture
jobsshare of the total jobs
share of the total jobs
share of the total jobs
share of the total
sum of all jobs 2010 4200 9000 9700retail stores 510 25% 210 5%research and development 900 10% 970 10%services for real estate property 900 10% 485 5%computing services 2700 30% 970 10%
logistic 600 30% 420 10%healthcare 2250 25% 2910 30%other services 900 45% 2520 60% 2250 25% 2425 25%manufacture 1050 25%medical technology 1940 20%
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• The results refer to the average of the first four years of production after achieving the aimed degree of efficiency
• Year of reference is 2008
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Sensitivity analysis
Scenario 1 The model is used with all standard implications. Furthermore it is implied that there will be no regional or industry reaction in competition due to undertaking the investment.Ruhr-areaRest of Northrhine-WestphaliaNorthrhine-Westphalia as a whole Ratio of Occupation
Scenario 2 The model is used with all standard implications. The investment finds itself in the position of regional or industry competition.Ruhr-areaRest of Northrhine-WestphaliaNorthrhine-Westphalia as a whole Ratio of Occupation
Scenario 3 Input-Output Analysis.the Ruhr-areaRest of Northrhine-WestphaliaNorthrhine-Westphalia as a whole Ratio of Occupation
jobsdirectindirectdirect
jobsdirectindirectdirect
jobsdirectindirectdirect
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Expected effects in the Ruhr-area (in absolute figures)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Stores specialized in retail trade 2.850 1.600 2.510
Industrial park with a focus on traditional services 5.900 3.580 5.610
Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises 13.850 6.780 12.520
Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture)
14.070 7.690 12.590
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Expected effects in the remaining part of NRW (in absolute figures)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Stores specialized in retail trade 370 -550 160
Industrial park with a focus on traditional services 800 -880 430
Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises 1.780 -2.250 890
Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture
1.800 -2.040 860
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Expected effects in whole State (in absolute figures)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Stores specialized in retail trade 3.220 1.050 2.670
Industrial park with a focus on traditional services 6.700 2.700 6.040
Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises 15.630 4.530 13.410
Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture
15.870 5.650 13.450
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Expected occupational effects in whole Northrhine-Westphalia (in relative figures)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Stores specialized in retail trade 1.60 0.52 1.33
Industrial park with a focus on traditional services 1.60 0.64 1.44
Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises 1.74 0.50 1.49
Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture)
1.64 0.58 1.39
jobsdirectindirectdirect
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On the basis of the research results
The elaborated concept • The Industrial park with a focus on health-
care including manufacture • In order to attract potential customers as
well as potential investors a theme park on healthcare is implemented within the industrial park
Future Park O.Vision
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Future Park O.Vision
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Evaluation of “O.Vision”
themepark (public funding where possible)
industrial park (private funding only)
phase of construction
buildings InfrastuctureExhibitions
buildings and the infrastucture
used methodI-O tables,
(due to international tendering procedures, there was no way to regionalize the figures)
phase of operating
operating Themepark
operating all settled enterprises
used method Remi –Standard Model
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dimensiontheme-
park(1)
industrial park(2)
relation (2) /( 1)
direct potential of occupation
workingyears 1322 5636 4.3
indirect potential of occupation
workingYears 929 3975 4.3
contribution to the GDP Mill. € 110.9 437 3.9
Expected developement while building the themepark and the industrial park
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Occupational effects of the themepark (sensitive analysis)
Direct employees in the Themepark 175Scenario 1
No regional or industry reaction in competition due to undertaking the investment.
Direct and indirect jobs
Ruhr-area 290Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia 39Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 329
Ratio of Occupation: 1,8Scenario 2 Strong regional or industry competition.
Ruhr-area 205Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia -34Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 171
Ratio of Occupation: 0,98Scenario 3 Input-Output Analysis.
the Ruhr-area 219Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia 18Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 237
Ratio of Occupation: 1,35
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Occupational effects of the industrial park (sensitive analysis)
Direct employees in the inustrial park 7.089
Scenario 1 No regional or industry reaction in competition due to undertaking the investment.
Direct and indirect jobs
Ruhr-area 10.318Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia 1.985Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 12.303
Ratio of Occupation: 1,74Scenario 2 Strong regional or industry competition.
Ruhr-area 5.590Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia -1.216Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 4.432
Ratio of Occupation: 0,62Scenario 3 Input-Output Analysis.
the Ruhr-area 9.650Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia 1.012Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 10.662
Ratio of Occupation: 1.50
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Conclusions
• Distinct positive impact on employment in the Ruhr area
• Success of the strategy as a whole, highly depends on situation investment finds itself in market conditions– Inter-regional competition– Inter-industrial competition
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