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Vergleichende Analyse der Infrastrukturkosten für Batterie- und Brennstoffzellenfahrzeuge
NOVEMBER 08, 2018 THOMAS GRUBE, JOCHEN LINSSEN, MARTIN ROBINIUS,
MARKUS REUSS, PETER STENZEL,
KONSTANTINOS SYRANIDIS, DETLEF STOLTEN
th.grube@fz-juelich.de
Institute for Electrochemical Process Engineering (IEK-3)
7. WIRTSCHAFTSGESPRÄCH IM CLUSTER UMWELT | 5. HYPOS-DIALOG
Leipzig
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Who we are
1
Process and Systems Analysis (VSA)Head of Department: Dr.-Ing. Martin Robinius
Renewable energies &
storage
InfrastructuresTransport
Residential sector
Industry
Areas of VSA’s Expertise:
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sci
enti
sts
Energy System Analysis CCS/CCU
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Highlights
2
Motivation
Transport sector essential for reaching the ambitious climate protection goals
Electric drivetrains key elements of renewably-based, clean and energy-efficient transport
Research question and approach
What are costs, efficiencies and emissions of an infrastructure capable of supplying hundred thousand or several million vehicles with hydrogen or electricity?
In depth scenario analysis of infrastructure designs, case study for Germany
Spatio-temporally resolved models for generation, conversion, transport and distribution
Conclusion
Hydrogen and controlled charging key to integration of renewable electricity in transportation
Complementary development of both infrastructures maximize energy efficiency, optimize the use of renewable energy and minimize CO2 emissions
Hydrogen infrastructure roll-out for transportation sector enables further large-scale applications in other sectors
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Germany Since 1990
3
[1] BMWi, Zahlen und Fakten Energiedaten - Nationale und Internationale Entwicklung. 2018: Berlin. [2] BRD, Energiekonzept für eine umweltschonende, zuverlässige und bezahlbare Energieversorgung. 2010: Berlin.[3] BMU, Klimaschutzplan 2050 - Klimaschutzpolitische Grundsätze und Ziele der Bundesregierung. 2016: Berlin.
GH
G e
mis
sion
com
pare
d to
199
0 [%
]
Total emissions[1] Sector specific emissions[1]
TransportationIndustry
Energy
Today
Buildings
Today
Mitigation targets of the Federal Government 2010[2]
Mitigation targets according to Climate Action Plan 2016[3]
► No GHG reductions in the transportation sector since 1990
► Achieving mitigation targets requires contributions from all sectors
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
What are investments, cost, efficiencies and emissions of infrastructures?
Battery Cars (BEV) & Fuel Cell Cars (FCEV) are Key Elements of GHG mitigation in Transportation
4
Renewable power generation
FCEVBEV
BEV charging infrastructure
H2 fueling infrastructure
Mass market
Introduction
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Battery Cars (BEV)
44,419 Plug-in hybrids and 53,861 BEVs (Jan 1, 2018)[1]
Supply infrastructures are market ready – required technologies are available.
Fuel Cell Cars (FCEV)
325 cars, 15 buses, 2 trucks, 2 semi trucks (Jan 1, 2018)[1]
Status Quo of BEV & FCEVs and Infrastructures in Germany
5
Pub
lic c
ahrg
epo
ints
[3]
H2
Fue
ling
Sta
tions
[5]
Planned (2018)
[1] KBA. Bestand am 1. Januar 2018 nach Motorisierung. 2018 (FCEV Auf Anfrage) [2] Nationale PlattformElektromobilität: Wegweiser Elektromobilität. 2016. [3] BDEW, Erhebung Ladeinfrastruktur. 2017: Berlin. [4] H2 MOBILITY: H2-Stations. 2018 [5] HyARC, International Hydrogen Fueling Stations. 2018.
40070,000 77,100 in 2020 [2] 400 in 2023[4]
13,500 in July 2018[3]
52 in Oct. 2018[4]
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Number of in million 0.1 1 3 5 10 20
Market penetration scenario
Analysis of investments, costs, efficiencies and emissions
Electric vehicle penetrationApproach
6
Meta-analysis of existing infrastructure scenario studies
In depth scenario analysis of infrastructure designs,
case study for Germany
Spatio-temporally resolved models for generation, conversion, transport and distribution
Consistent scenario framework with different vehicle penetrations
Renewable electricity & demand Electricity generation & grid
Hydrogen production
Mass marketRamp-up →
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Meta Analysis
7
Selection criteria of scenario studies
Focus on Germany (broader context studies for EU, worldwide) and quantitative results; parameters: number of H2 fueling stations and charging points, cumulative investment for infrastructure set-up
Number of scanned literature sources: 79
Studies selected for meta analysis: 25 (12 on H2 fueling and 13 on BEV charging)
Lessons learned of the meta analysis
Mostly aggregated results; in many cases without provision of techno-economic assumptions
Regarding H2 fueling infrastructures: Lack of information on parameters that are important infrastructure parameters, e.g., H2 pipeline length, number of trucks for H2 transport→ no meta-analysis possible
Regarding BEV charging studies: lack of studies concerning high xEV penetration scenarios, investment for infrastructure build-up, demand for fast-charging and impacts on the distribution grid
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Assumed Electricity Scenario Assessment based on municipal level and hourly resolution of grid load/ RES feed-in
RES power [GW | TWh]: onshore: 170 | 350; offshore: 59 | 231; PV: 55 | 47; hydro: 6 | 21; bio: 7 | 44; fossil: 63 | 118Further assumptions: grid electricity: 528 TWh; imports: 28 TWh; exports: 45 TWh; pos. residual: natural gasPo
wer
-Se
ctor
Residual energy [MWh/km²]
Negative residual energy (Surplus)
Positive residual energy
Power flow analysis based on 523 nodes and 802 edges
Share of RES electricity generation: 78 %Total curtailment (including future grid): 266 TWh
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Components of Electrical Charging Infrastructure
9
Power generation | Electricity transport | Electricity distribution | Charging
Public4–22 kW
At home 2–10 kW
Autobahn up to 350 kW
City, up to 350 kW
Renewable power
Power plants & grids
Spatially and temporally highly resolved models required.
Controllable power
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Components of Hydrogen Fueling Infrastructure
10
H2 production Storage Transport Fueling
Spatially and temporally highly resolved models required.
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Hydrogen Infrastructure Model
Technology database
Selection of fueling stations
Optimize grid/route network
Hydrogen supply chain model
Geospatial database
• Hydrogen production• Hydrogen demand• Candidate grid• (Highway grid)• Fueling station locations
Derive results
Scenario selection
• Number of FCEV• Number of fueling stations• Investigated pathways
• Hydrogen costs• Energy demand• GHG emissions
Preprocessinggeospatial data
11
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Selected Results and Infrastructure Parameters
12
H2
Mass marketIntroduction
400
42
12,000 km
1,500
2 TWh
730
12,000 km
3,800
10 GW
1,500
12,000 km
7,000
19 GW
3,000
11 million @ 22 kW
245,000 @ 350 kW
187,000
0.1 million 10 million3 million 20 million
100,000 @ 3.7 kW
6,000 @ 150 kW
2.8 Million
81,000
6,100
6.5 Million
175,000
55,000
1,800 km 28,000 km 183,000 km
3 GW
5 TWh 10 TWh
Cable length
Transformers
Normal charging
Quick chargers
Storage
Electrolysis
Trucks
Pipeline
Fueling stations
► During introductory phase BEV benefit from available infrastructure
► From 3 million FCEV onwards a hydrogen transmission pipeline will be beneficial
► Hydrogen infrastructure includes storage of renewable energies
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Total Cumulative Investment Hydrogen Infrastructure
13
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
3,1122,834
2,527
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0.1millionBEV
1millionBEV
20millionBEV
Inv
est
per
BE
V [
€]Total and Specific InvestmentCharging Infrastructure
14
311
2,834
50,538
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
To
tal i
nv
est,
[m
illio
n €
]
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Comparison of Infrastructure Investments
15
► Cumulative investments are comparable during introductory and mass markets
► Future charge patterns unclear – greater uncertainty for charging infrastructure
► Hydrogen infrastructure with significant scaling effects
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Comparison of Mobility Costs
16
vehicle purchase and operation costs excluded
► For very small vehicle fleets, BEV fuel costs significantly lower
► H2 cost increase between 1 and 3 million cars caused by switch to renewable energy
► For high market penetration scenario fuel cost are roughly the same
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
► Efficiency of charging infrastructure is higher, but limited in flexibility and use of surplus electricity
► Fueling infrastructure for hydrogen with inherent seasonal storage option
► Low specific CO2 emissions for both options in high penetration scenarios with advantage for
hydrogen, well below the EU emission target after 2020: 95 gCO2/km
CO2 Emissions & Electricity Demand
17
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
New
0
5
10
15
20
25
jäh
rlic
he
Inve
stit
ion
en
[M
rd €
/a]
H2 fueling and charging infrastructures: Annual investment low compared to maintenance und extension investments of existing energy infrastructures
Comparison with Annual Investments in Energy Infrastructures
18
[1] Robinius, M. et al.: Comparative Analysis of Infrastructures: Hydrogen Fueling and Electric Charging of Vehicles. 2018 [2] BNetzA: Monitoringbericht 2017. [3] BDEW: Investitionen der deutschen Stromwirtschaft. 2018 [4] BMWi: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen. 2017
20132014201520162017Scenario
DistributionTransm.
H2
infr
astr
uctu
re*
20 M
io. F
CEV
[1]
Cha
rgin
g in
fras
tr.*
20
Mio
. BEV
[1]
*Average annual invest over 30
years
An
nu
al in
vest
men
ts
[bill
ion
€/a
]
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
H2 fueling and charging infrastructures: Annual investment low compared to maintenance und extension investments of existing energy infrastructures
Comparison with Annual Investments in Energy Infrastructures
19
[1] Robinius, M. et al.: Comparative Analysis of Infrastructures: Hydrogen Fueling and Electric Charging of Vehicles. 2018 [2] BNetzA: Monitoringbericht 2017. [3] BDEW: Investitionen der deutschen Stromwirtschaft. 2018 [4] BMWi: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen. 2017
New Grid maintenance and extension
H2
infr
astr
uctu
re*
20 M
io. F
CEV
[1]
Cha
rgin
g in
fras
tr.*
20
Mio
. BEV
[1]
Elec
tric
grid
[2]
Gas
grid
[2]
*Average annual invest over 30
years
20132014201520162017Scenario
DistributionTransm.0
5
10
15
20
25
jäh
rlic
he
Inve
stit
ion
en
[M
rd €
/a]
An
nu
al in
vest
men
ts
[bill
ion
€/a
]
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
H2 fueling and charging infrastructures: Annual investment low compared to maintenance und extension investments of existing energy infrastructures
Comparison with Annual Investments in Energy Infrastructures
20
[1] Robinius, M. et al.: Comparative Analysis of Infrastructures: Hydrogen Fueling and Electric Charging of Vehicles. 2018 [2] BNetzA: Monitoringbericht 2017. [3] BDEW: Investitionen der deutschen Stromwirtschaft. 2018 [4] BMWi: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen. 2017
New Gridmaintenance and extension
Power Generation maintenance and extension
H2
infr
astr
uctu
re*
20 M
io. F
CEV
[1]
Cha
rgin
g in
fras
tr.*
20
Mio
. BEV
[1]
Elec
tric
grid
[2]
Gas
grid
[2]
Pow
er g
ener
atio
n re
new
able
[4]
Pow
er g
ener
atio
n fo
ssil
[3]
*Average annual invest over 30
years
20132014201520162017Scenario
DistributionTransm.0
5
10
15
20
25
jäh
rlic
he
Inve
stit
ion
en
[M
rd €
/a]
An
nu
al in
vest
men
ts
[bill
ion
€/a
]
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Conclusions
21
Hydrogen and controlled charging are key to integration of renewable electricity in transportation
Complementary development of both infrastructures improves energy efficiency and renewable energy utilization and reduces CO2 emissions
Hydrogen infrastructure roll-out for transportation sector enables further large-scale applications in other sectors
Integrated infrastructures analysis and energy systems to identify win-win situations
Modeling of BEV charging requires in depth analysis: high uncertainties regarding number of chargers, siting and impact of fast charging on electric distribution grid
Impact analysis of new mobility and vehicle ownership concepts as well as autonomous driving on future transport supply concepts
Need for further research
IEK-3: Institut für Elektrochemische Verfahrenstechnik
Battery and Fuel Cell
Thank you for your attention!
22
http://hdl.handle.net/2128/16709
Project team:
Martin Robinius, Jochen Linßen, Thomas Grube, Markus Reuß, Peter Stenzel, Konstantinos Syranidis, Patrick Kuckertz, Detlef Stolten
Full report available:
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