zentralanstalt für meteorologie und geodynamik
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Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Weather forecasts and
crisis management
Michael Staudinger
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Weather forecasts and
crisis management
Michael Staudinger
Is this a crisis I see before me?
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Floods
Precipitation, snow line, ground moisture, probabilities . . . . source: BH Landeck
Warning situations – necessary Informations
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Avalanches
snowfall, rain, temperature, wind. . . .
Warning situations – necessary Informations
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Warning situations – necessary Informations
Wind storm
Speed, direction, impact, preconditions, behaviour . . .
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Warning situations
Predictability
Space - time correlation (ECMWF)
A warning system has to be based on the predictability of the different phenomena
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Structure of ZAMG forecasts
Early warning (5 days)
• Global models (ECMWF, NCEP . . .)• Probabilistic forecasts(EPS)• Climatology• Extreme value statistic
Today, tomorrow
• Regional models (ALARO, AROME)• Probabilistic forecasts (EPS)• Satellite images
Nowcasting (120 min)
• Radar • Satellite imagea• In-situ Measurement• Regional Models (ALARO, AROME)• INCA
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
ZAMG Vorhersagen 5 Tage
Early warnings (5 days)
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
ZAMG Vorhersagen 72h
3 days22. Juni 2009 – 72h forecast
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
ZAMG forecasts 72h
3 days22. Juni 2009 – 72h forecast
22. Juni 2009 - Analysis
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
ZAMG Vorhersagen 48h
ALARO (5 km) without data assimilation
Today, tomorrow
Precipitation Analysis
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
ZAMG forecasts 48h
Today, tomorrow
Precipitation Analysis
AROME 2,5 km with data assimilation
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
ZAMG forecasts – Nowcasting 6h
INCA
RADAR
SATELLITS
TOPOGRAPHY
OBSERVATIONS
ALARO5limited area model
ECMWF, Reading
ECMWFglobal model
Météo France, Toulouse
ARPEGEglobal model
HYDROLOGY WARNINGS PRODUCTS
→ Analyses→ Nowcasts→ Forecasts
Y. Wang
A. Kann
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
ZAMG forecasts– Nowcasting 6h
Hight dependency of precipitation, derived from climatological stations
without with
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
ZAMG Vorhersagen – Nowcasting 6h
weight
1
+06 h +72 h0
Forecast time range
+67 h+02 h0h-15 min
ALADIN ECMWF
Analyse
Nowcasting
INCA Model weight
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Radar
Nowcasting with traffic regulation
Radar + INCA data
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Nowcasting with traffic regulation
Radar Radar + INCA data
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
SKKM – From science to the user
Flow of information - cooperationsuser:
mayorCompanies,Individuals
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
SKKM – From science to the user
Flow of information - cooperations
Media
Warningauthorit
y
ZAMG Weather users:
• Local responsibles• Mayors• Companies,• Individuals (Apps etc.)
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
ZAMG forecasts
A. Schaffhauser
K. Stadlbacher
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Standardised European Warnings
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Infrastructure of forecasts
forecasting Media, public
EM
I - E
urop
en M
eteo
rolo
gica
l Inf
rast
ruct
ure
LAM, in situ data, …
forecasting
Civil Protection
Media, public
Media, public
Civil Protection
forecasting
Civil Protection regio
Media, public
Media, public
Civil Protection regio Media, public
Civil Protection regio Media, public
LAM, in situ data, …
LAM, in situ data, …
Media, public
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Warnings and competition
POD 1xxxx
xxx
(now)
(future)
xxxx xxx
FAR
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Warnings and competition
POD 1xxxx
xxx
(now)
(future)
xxxx xxx
FAR
XXXXXX
(competing players)
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Conrad Observatory
145 m Tunnel
Eingang 1.044 m
3 Boreholes100 m deep
1 Borehole50 m deep
Gravity Meter
Borehole Sensors
SeismometerSeismometer
SeismometerSeismometer
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Conrad Observatory
145 m Tunnel
Eingang 1.044 m
3 Boreholes100 m deep
1 Borehole50 m deep
Gravity Meter
Borehole Sensors
SeismometerSeismometer
SeismometerSeismometer
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather
Folgen eines koronalen Massenauswurf:Horizontalkomponente H und Aktivitätsindex K bei magnetischen Sturm
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather
Folgen eines koronalen Massenauswurf:Horizontalkomponente H und Aktivitätsindex K bei magnetischen Sturm
Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik
Necessary future cooperations
Weather service and:
More data providers:
other services, private companies, cross boarder data exchange (radar)
Universities, research institutions :
development of methods (modelling, impacts, climate modelling …
Operational services:
„Multihazard Services“ (Hydro, health services, Red cross . . . .)
Framework: National ISDR, GEO, GCOS platforms
open data policies
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