developing a transformative business ......using the design thinking (dt) approach for such purpose....

5th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) - Engage today to shape tomorrow Brussels, 27-28 November 2014

THEME 2: CREATIVE INTERFACES FOR FORWARD LOOKING ACTIVITIES

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DEVELOPING A TRANSFORMATIVE BUSINESS STRATEGY

THROUGH THE COMBINATION OF DESIGN THINKING AND

FUTURES LITERACY

Cristiano Cagnin Centre for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), SCS Qd 9, Lote C, Torre C, 4º andar, Salas 401 A 405, Ed. Parque

Cidade Corporate, Brasília-DF, CEP 70308-200, Brazil – [email protected]

Abstract

The paper describes a systematic methodology that combines Futures Literacy and Design Thinking to enable the collective discovery of new and disruptive business niches. It is a participatory approach centred on design know-how, which promotes innovative forms of engagement and articulation. The proposed methodology balances experience in designing and applying FTA approaches and Futures Literacy Knowledge Labs together with a multidisciplinary understanding of institutional context.

The methodology fosters decision making processes that embraces complexity and treats uncertainty as a resource, thus improving an organisations’ capacity to use the future to expand its understanding of the present. It has been applied at the Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), an organisation where institutionalised foresight and technology assessment takes place in Brazil, especially in support to Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) policy design and implementation, as well as evaluation. However, its clients also include different ministries within government and industries alike.

The ways in which the organisation involved all its collaborators to jointly rethink its future building upon collective intelligence, narrative building, sense making, framing and reframing are outlined. The design principles and experiences that took place across the collective learning curve are then articulated to show how these led into renewed focus on systemic and transformative innovation. By jointly expanding the understanding of future interrelated systems in which the organisation can play a role, new strategic questions were jointly crafted. As a consequence, new and disruptive possible roles for the institution were identified. These informed decision making for assessment and consideration in the redesign of the business strategy.

The paper presents the developed methodology, its application and major findings. Moreover, it describes the ways in which these impact the organisation’s approach to both shape its own strategic positioning and to design and implement foresight and strategic studies. The paper concludes by outlining the implications of the proposed methodology for FTA practice.

Keywords: Futures Literacy and Design Thinking, Engagement and Articulation, Complexity and Uncertainty

mailto:[email protected]



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Introduction

Making decisions that embrace complexity, treating uncertainty as a resource not an enemy, calls for a significantly enhanced capacity to use the future to understand the present. Building this greater capacity rests on bringing anticipation out into the open as the way the future exists in the present. Doing so makes clear that conscious human search and choice deploy a range of different anticipatory systems to invent and apply the future to practical decision making. An applied anticipatory systems approach to using the future provides policy and decision makers as well as individuals with an enhanced capacity to both question and invent the anticipatory assumptions that inform their choices.

Futures Literacy (FL) provides such capacity. This ability is acquired by undergoing a learning-by-doing process (Miller, 2007). This is a collective intelligence process designed to assist us to collectively identify and invent anticipatory assumptions that at once enable us imagine the future and make choices in the present. The process reveals and challenges the implicit and explicit anticipatory assumptions we use to think about the future. Participants of such process engage in a simulation that advances their capacity to make strategic decisions in contexts of ambiguity by more fully exploring the potential of the present so that diversity and complexity can serve as sources of inspiration; a way to embrace the dazzling heterogeneity of the world as well as to respect the creative spontaneity of freedom and serendipity (Miller, 2011).

FL is therefore a systematic approach to improving the capacity of our anticipatory systems (Miller, 2006). Decision makers who are futures literate have a more explicit awareness of the expectations and values that shape their (and their community’s) view of the future. They are also better able to design collective intelligence processes that use the future to see opportunities in today’s intricate, fluid and spontaneous world. Ultimately, by opening up what we imagine to be the future assists us with a fuller appreciation of the potential of the present. The process should be carefully designed to achieve this objective and the paper proposes using the Design Thinking (DT) approach for such purpose.

In this context, section 2 explains both the FL and DT methodologies and section 3 describes the practical case outlining how these methodologies were combined throughout. Section 4 outlines the results and implications, whereas section 5 concludes the paper.

Methodological approach

According to Miller (2012), the discipline of anticipation (DoA) entails the acquisition and use of a set of design principles for thinking about the ‘later-than-now.’ When someone becomes more capable at anticipation they become better at using the future to understand the present. They are more capable because they are better able to do three general tasks: (i) clarify the specific purposes of thinking about the future; (ii) establish a consistent relationship between the aims of futures thinking and the methods used to do so; and (iii) achieve greater sophistication, as is to be expected when disciplinarity brings greater depth, clarity and legitimacy. These are accepted attributes of mastery acquired through learning. The DoA assumes that the future is defined by four fundamental attributes of our universe: the practical irreversibility of time; birth and death – difference and repetition; unforeseeable novelty; and connectedness.

The DoA is a way to collectively use the future to learn (creating knowledge); it is therefore a form of research or cognitive engagement/construction. Consequently the DoA, as practice, consists of activities that always involve narrative (sense making), collective intelligence, and framing/reframing (Miller, 2011). This is a scientific meta-framework for sensing and making sense of the present that ensures that the way we use the imaginary future is consistent with the



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three preceding principles. Each of these activities is necessary, and all are inter-dependent. Taken together, these are design principles for using the future. In other words, building a more complete and rigorous connection between the definition of what is the future, as emergent, rich, and unknowable novelty, and how to gain an understanding of the imagined future, through the narratives we invent in the present, calls for a set of design principles that take into account the four attributes of the DoA.

Therefore, the DoA aims at the development of an enhanced comprehension of the ways in which we operate both in known and unknown systems. It enables one to detect ‘the new’ by using two distinct ways of using the future: (i) use of a model to imagine the future with the objective of predicting what may happen (predictions and hopes); and (ii) use of a disruptive model which aims to reduce or end with predictive or normative barriers. In a sort of self-conscious way (meta-cognition), participation in this process, where anticipation is brought out into the open as the way the future exists in the present, offers a learning-by-doing entry point into a expanded understanding of anticipation (models, systems, processes) – what might be called Futures Literacy (FL) (Miller, 2012).

FL follows a learning curve sequence that is intended to engage the collective intelligence of participants (Cagnin et al., 2013). The discussion typically moves through four phases, which is depicted in Figure 1. Often, in practice, phases three and four are combined into one single phase, although in the described project this has not been the case.

Figure 1 – Futures Literacy overall process

Overall, in the first phase participants are asked to think about predictions and hopes. This is the easy part of the learning curve which aims to convert tacit knowledge into explicit. Predictions are about what they think is most likely to take place – a snapshot in everyday life in the long-run



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three preceding principles. Each of these activities is necessary, and all are inter-dependent.

Taken together, these are design principles for using the future. In other words, building a more

complete and rigorous connection between the definition of what is the future, as emergent, rich,

and unknowable novelty, and how to gain an understanding of the imagined future, through the narratives we invent in the present, calls for a set of design principles that take into account the

four attributes of the DoA.

Therefore, the DoA aims at the development of an enhanced comprehension of the ways in which we operate both in known and unknown systems. It enables one to detect ‘the new’ by

using two distinct ways of using the future: (i) use of a model to imagine the future with the

objective of predicting what may happen (predictions and hopes); and (ii) use of a disruptive model which aims to reduce or end with predictive or normative barriers. In a sort of self-

conscious way (meta-cognition), participation in this process, where anticipation is brought out

into the open as the way the future exists in the present, offers a learning-by-doing entry point

into a expanded understanding of anticipation (models, systems, processes) – what might be called Futures Literacy (FL) (Miller, 2012).

FL follows a learning curve sequence that is intended to engage the collective intelligence of

participants (Cagnin et al., 2013). The discussion typically moves through four phases, which is depicted in Figure 1. Often, in practice, phases three and four are combined into one single

phase, although in the described project this has not been the case.

Figure 1 – Futures Literacy overall process

Overall, in the first phase participants are asked to think about predictions and hopes. This is the

easy part of the learning curve which aims to convert tacit knowledge into explicit. Predictions are about what they think is most likely to take place – a snapshot in everyday life in the long-run

Trends (predictions)

Desires (hopes)

Predictive/normative model

“Reframing”

Model free of predictive

or normative barriers

Prototype

Comparison between two previous phases

New (strategic)

questions

Identify choices (strategies and associated

actions)



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future. Hopes are about their values; what they would like to see in the future. Ultimately, phase one shall bring about awareness that we all use the future in our daily lives even if not conscious of such process. At the same time, the process shall clarify our diverse modes of thinking about the future, making these explicit.

In the second phase one shall leave behind probable and desirable futures to experiment with a discontinuous framework, a new set of colours and brushes for painting an imaginary image. This alternative framework should be provided as a sort of new palette for participants to experiment with. To be clear, there is no suggestion that this alternative future is likely to happen or is even desirable, the point is to experience the power of our anticipatory assumptions in shaping the futures we imagine and the potential to address the creative challenge of inventing paradigmatically different futures. This is the steep part of the learning curve were participants engage on a rigorous imagining process that is designed to “reframe” the future, enabling the development of systemically discontinuous but operationally detailed (organisation/functions) descriptions. Here participants should be guided to imagine changes in the conditions of change in the way people use the future.

In the third phase the aim is to compare phases one and two via in-depth discussions and/or the development of prototypes that show how the same theme or subject can be understood from very different perspectives. For building prototypes one should think about audience (who and to whom), environment (where and when) and format (what and how).

Finally, in the fourth phase the conversation moves to an examination of the way anticipatory assumptions influence our understanding of the present and how specific images of the future make meaningful or visible different aspects of the present. Hence, one should return to the initial decision making context to test new questions and identify choices. The design of the process is meant to ensure congruence between the narratives that describe the future and the narratives that shape decision-making in the present. In this last phase the challenge is to think of new questions, ones that might have been considered unimportant or incomprehensible without imagining the future using different anticipatory assumptions.

There are diverse possibilities in designing and implementing a FL process. To support one in this process the Design Thinking (DT) methodology offers an interesting approach, especially if one aims to support the identification and selection of strategies that shall enable one to develop or reorient existing systems towards innovation. DT uses four principles for developing innovations (Kumar, 2013): (i) build innovations around experiences; (ii) think of innovations as systems; (iii) cultivate an innovation culture; and (iv) adopt a disciplined innovation process. Ultimately, the objective is to explore problems or challenges and possible solutions to these. The focus is on the end user and his or her experience (context), both to reframe problems or challenges and to propose alternative solutions. In doing so it embeds creativity in the identification and selection of solutions (innovations) that attend known and unknown demands. The discussion explores new concepts in abstract terms before evaluating these and implementing them for their acceptance in the real world. It typically moves through five phases, according to Figure 2, and one can start from any of these phases since these are not linear but iterative.



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Figure 2 – Design Thinking Overall Process

In detail, the phases are:

1. Reframing the initial problem – a sense analysis to observe the changing world around us in order to figure out where to start. It departs from the observation, analysis and learning from the real world in transformation around us in order to identify where to start from (i.e. questions, problems, challenges). It does so by creating abstractions and conceptual models to reframe the problem in new ways, which require fluidity of thought between the real and the abstract.

2. Research – understand the context and people around the situation or reframed problem being analysed.

3. Analysis – frame the insights gathered so as to bring structure to what has been found and learned, thus finding insights and patterns that emerge, and generating guidelines or principles.



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Figure 2 – Design Thinking Overall Process

Source: Kumar (2013)

In detail, the phases are:

1. Reframing the initial problem – a sense analysis to observe the changing world around

us in order to figure out where to start. It departs from the observation, analysis and learning from the real world in transformation around us in order to identify where to start

from (i.e. questions, problems, challenges). It does so by creating abstractions and

conceptual models to reframe the problem in new ways, which require fluidity of thought between the real and the abstract.

2. Research – understand the context and people around the situation or reframed problem

being analysed.

3. Analysis – frame the insights gathered so as to bring structure to what has been found and learned, thus finding insights and patterns that emerge, and generating guidelines or

principles.

Principles

Understand Do

Re

al

Ab

str

ac

t

Tests

Pla

ns

Ob

se

rva

tio

ns

Synthesis Analysis

Research Realisation

Reframe

Initial Problem

Understand Context

Understand People

Frame

Insights

Frame

Solutions

Explore

New Concepts

Propose/

Implement Solutions



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4. Synthesis – explore (bold) new concepts through collaboration and frame solutions through interaction and based on various combinations of the new concepts developed, which are later evaluated to identify those that bring more value to users and stakeholders, thus moving from the earlier more abstract level into the description of holistic solutions or prototypes tested in the real world that give a sense of ‘what could be’.

5. Realisation – realize offerings once potential solutions are framed and prototypes tested, which are then evaluated in order to move into the implementation phase ensuring that solutions are purposefully built around peoples’ experiences and can provide real value (also economically), which are all translated into a roadmap that shows the speculated progression of solutions in distinct phases and the necessary steps and engagements to implement the selected solutions.

Practical case

The actual process being described followed that depicted in Figure 1 combined with design elements described in Figure 2 throughout. However, phases one and four of the typical FL approach were divided each into two stages, totalising six stages in total. Each of these were designed to occur in one week divided into two sessions of one and a half hours, each taking place in one specific day: every Tuesday from 10:30 till 12:00 and every Thursday from 16:30 till 18:00. In each stage different food was provided so that people could discuss and outline their ideas while eating snacks such as chocolate, candies, cheese bread, cake, ice cream and pizza. All discussions but the final workshop (stage six) took place in a space carefully designed for such in-house interactions with people standing rather than sitting, and with a huge wall used to capture ideas and develop illustrations.

In terms of objectives, the first was to guide participants through a learning-by-doing process that challenged the implicit and explicit anticipatory assumptions they use to think about the future. The second was to enable colleagues to immerse in two methodological approaches to learn in practice ways in which these can be adapted to daily activities and projects. The third was to help the institution to rethink its strategic positioning. The forth was to support CGEE in reframing its ways of designing, organising, implementing, managing and evaluating its foresight and strategic studies.

The internal project team was comprised of five to ten people, depending on the week, with all sharing responsibilities and ownership for the design, implementation and adaptation of the process. In the first and second stages of the project participants were asked to think about predictions and hopes in 2040. Participants were asked to talk about their future expectations and desires with respect to the cities of the future in 2040.

In the first day of the first week (stage 1) participants were requested to describe trends and hopes (FL phase 1) using post-its and posting these into the wall, which was divided in two: one side for predictions and another for desires. In order to kick-off the discussion an illustration (annex 1) was developed showing the STEEPV systems (Loveridge, 2002; EFILWC, 2003; Loveridge and Cagnin, 2014), which was used to frame insights (DT analysis or third phase). Also, a video broadcasting colleagues and their children saying “the future is for me” was shown to break the ice. In day 2 of the first week participants were asked to build relationships between collected insights with the use of threads of different colours. At the end of the first week the results were analysed by the project team and organised in terms of an initial narrative: “Social, economic and environmental problems deepen impacting negatively the delivery of services



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(e.g. water, energy, transport, etc.) and social relations, which become fragile, superficial and individualistic. Measures are palliative. However, there are positive perspectives in the direction of more sustainable, human and secure cities... with the generation and use of clean and renewable energy; with a decentralisation of production and economic activities; with an agile, accessible and fair legal system; with quality essential services delivered by governments based on respect, compromise and competence; with equity in terms of income and access to social services (e.g. health, social security, education, etc.); with tolerance for cultural, sexual, political, cultural and religious diversity; and with participation and shared responsibility in community and public decision making”. This narrative was transformed into an illustration (annex 2) to kick off the discussion of the following week.

In stage 2 (second week) participants were requested to deepen the initial narrative based both on the text and illustration provided (results of first week) in order to describe a clear and rich context and the relationships between actors (DT research or second phase), still thinking in terms of predictions and hopes (FL phase 1). One of the tools used to deepen and broaden the content of the narrative was the Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) (Inayatullah, 19988; 2003) which is a powerful tool for helping participants to make sense of their narratives by organising and communicating attributes of their described imaginary futures (DT analysis or third phase). In the first day participants individually included post-its in the wall into four dedicated spaces, according to CLA: (i) headline message; (ii) ways in which different (STEEPV) systems operate; (iii) ways in which different actors (moving away from usual suspects or government, industry and research to include family, children, and others) relate in these systems and towards one another; and (iv) an overall metaphor. These were initially organised by the project team and later discussed collectively. Three different narratives emerged and in day two these were further developed and refined using the world cafe (Brown and Isaacs, 2005) approach: to kick off the groups that defined each narrative started its refinement and after every 15 minutes people moved to other groups in order to discuss a different narrative. In this way everybody discussed all three narratives. Beyond the three detailed narratives developed, at the end of day two participants were asked to spend the last 20 or so minutes discussing collectively the experience so far, which added inputs for refining the initial narrative itself (result of first week). Hence, at the end of stage 2 four detailed narratives had been developed and these were organised in terms of a newspaper (annex 3) with four main headlines: (i) Retrospective: how the cities of the future were imagined three decades ago?; (ii) New global governance is taking form: new roles for governments, institutions and individual actors; (iii) A pop artist play from the 80s is related to the ideals of the city of 2040; and (iv) Athlete with a century of age calls attention in the open swimming championship of the Tietê river and break the world record of the 5km in the category post-85.

The four resulting narratives were transformed into one illustration (annex 4) to kick off the discussions in the fourth stage, together with results of the third or following stage. Figure 3 shows how FL and DT methodologies were married in the first two stages of the project (first phase of the FL process).

In the third stage participants were provided with a discontinuous framework (FL phase 2) developed for the purpose. This was a reframing model named ‘World of Ana’ that they could use to describe a “disruptive” or “systemically discontinuous” imaginary future. Ana was an avatar developed for the project. Both Ana and her world were illustrated (annex 5) to enable a more friendly understanding of the discontinuous model being proposed.



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Figure 3 – Methodology in the first two stages of the exercise

This model was designed without reference to probability or desirability. In other words there is no expectation that this imaginary future will or will not come to pass or that it will be “good” or “bad”. The point of the model is to give participants a few descriptive variables and functional relationships that depart from existing dominant societal attributes and organizational forms. The model is meant to equip participants with new or unfamiliar elements for describing the future. This is an “outside the box” image or “theatre stage” that can inspire creative thinking about the nature, role and organisation of the cities of the future, in general, and ways in which people operate in it, in particular. The main assumptions of this alternative future ‘world’ were: “being” above “having”; being and acting freely; identity created in interaction with others and the environment; work organised for life; interaction between science and spirituality; inseparable relation between the individual, the collective and nature; banal and informal creativity as value creator; new perceptions of time and space; “murmuration” as a metaphor for the ways in which



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Figure 3 – Methodology in the first two stages of the exercise

This model was designed without reference to probability or desirability. In other words there is

no expectation that this imaginary future will or will not come to pass or that it will be “good” or “bad”. The point of the model is to give participants a few descriptive variables and functional relationships that depart from existing dominant societal attributes and organizational forms. The model is meant to equip participants with new or unfamiliar elements for describing the future.

This is an “outside the box” image or “theatre stage” that can inspire creative thinking about the nature, role and organisation of the cities of the future, in general, and ways in which people operate in it, in particular. The main assumptions of this alternative future ‘world’ were: “being” above “having”; being and acting freely; identity created in interaction with others and the

environment; work organised for life; interaction between science and spirituality; inseparable relation between the individual, the collective and nature; banal and informal creativity as value

creator; new perceptions of time and space; “murmuration” as a metaphor for the ways in which


Desires (hopes)


“Reframing”

Model free of predictive or normative barriers

Prototype

Comparison between

two previous phases

New (strategic)

questions

Identify choices

(strategies and

associated actions)

Synthesis

Research Realisation 2

3

6

5

7

Understand context (2) and stakeholders (3)

Structure to frame insights (4)

STEEPV analysis (day 1) and interrelationships (day 2) – 1st week

Analysis

4

1

Deepening narratives using CLA (days 1 and 2) – 2nd

week



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life, power, and leadership are organised. This is a societal model that embraces novel emergent complexity and treats uncertainty as a resource not a threat.

With this in mind participants had to describe one day of Ana (day 1) and deepen her solutions (day 2) towards work, relationships, food, nature, fun, among others. The aim was to explore and combine new concepts, according to the ‘World of Ana’, to find new solutions to old problems (DT synthesis or fourth phase) in a way that participants could expand their understanding of context and stakeholders (DT research or second phase). Three groups were created to describe a day of Ana, each using a flipchart and a facilitator. A set of questions was prepared in advance to support groups to describe in as much detail as possible the day of Ana and her solutions. It is important to highlight that in this stage we moved away from the date 2040 so that participants would not question how the ‘World of Ana’ came about, but would simply discuss the reality provided by the project team at any point in time in the future. The final result was the development of three distinct narratives: (i) a description of an ordinary day in the life of Ana; (ii) a diary of Ana; and (iii) a dream of Ana. The three resulting narratives were transformed into an illustration (annex 6). Figure 4 shows how FL and DT methodologies were married in the third stage of the project (second phase of the FL process).

In the forth stage participants were requested to develop prototypes comparing the first two FL phases or three initial project stages (prediction and hopes vs. ‘World of Ana’). The illustrations developed at the end of stage 2 (annex 4) and stage 3 (annex 6) were used for comparison. Three big tables were placed in the centre of the room with a number of gadgets such as Lego and puzzle pieces; bulk moulding in a variety of colours; diverse piece of papers, magazines and newspapers; painting brushes; etc. Participants were free to develop their prototypes using any of the materials or gadgets available alone or in groups thinking about what we called 5W 1H: audience (who and to whom), environment (where and when) and format (what and how) of their prototypes. Things developed in a way that in day 1 participants only cared about developing their prototypes comparing predictions and hopes with the ‘World of Ana’ so that in day 2 they would explain elements contained in the 5W 1H (Gitlow, 2001; Vogt et al., 2003) to everyone. Once again the final prototypes and their explanation were transformed into illustrations (annex 7) at the end of stage four. Figure 5 shows how FL and DT methodologies were married in the fourth stage of the project (third phase of the FL process).

In the fifth stage participants were guided to identify and deepen new questions. To do so in the first day participants were asked to think about questions they would like to have answered regardless of being about predictions and hopes (stages 1 and 2 or FL phase 1), the ‘World of Ana’ (stage 3 or FL phase 2), or to build a bridge between both (stage 4 or FL phase 3). Although the objective was to focus on questions related to the latter, day 1 was left free and loose so that participants would feel confortable. The results of day 1 were organised by the project team using the STEEPV systems approach. In day 2 participants had one by one their eyes shut with a scarf so that they could pick randomly three of the questions posed in day 1. They were guided by the facilitator to select questions related to different STEEPV systems. Then, one by one all questions would be read by the facilitator and the colleague who selected the questions had to answer first, saying whatever came to his/her mind: it could be an answer or a new and more in-depth question. Then all participants could say whatever they wanted based on what they heard, deepening still further the discussion in order to identify new questions. After all participants had selected three questions and discussed them, the project team organised a set of resulting questions to be further explored in the final stage. These were based on the new questions identified by participants, especially those which seemed unimportant or incomprehensible without going through the process. Figure 6 shows how FL and DT methodologies were married in the fifth stage of the project (forth phase of the FL process).



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Figure 4 – Methodology in the third stage of the exercise

Finally, in the sixth stage, participants had to dive into the identified new questions to develop strategies and actions, in the present. This stage differed from the others as it was organised as a three-hour workshop rather than two interconnected one and a half hours sessions. For this reason it was organised in a different room with five round tables instead of in the in-house dedicated space for interaction. In each table a different theme was discussed to dig deeper the questions selected in the previous stage. The workshop initiated with a 30 minutes presentation setting the scene, showing what had been done in the previous 5 weeks or stages in terms of discussion and engagement, methodologies used, and results achieved. The following one and a half hours were dedicated to deepen the selected themes and questions in five rounds, using the world cafe approach so that everyone would discuss all themes.



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Figure 4 – Methodology in the third stage of the exercise

Finally, in the sixth stage, participants had to dive into the identified new questions to develop

strategies and actions, in the present. This stage differed from the others as it was organised as a three-hour workshop rather than two interconnected one and a half hours sessions. For this

reason it was organised in a different room with five round tables instead of in the in-house

dedicated space for interaction. In each table a different theme was discussed to dig deeper the questions selected in the previous stage. The workshop initiated with a 30 minutes presentation setting the scene, showing what had been done in the previous 5 weeks or stages in terms of discussion and engagement, methodologies used, and results achieved. The following one and

a half hours were dedicated to deepen the selected themes and questions in five rounds, using the world cafe approach so that everyone would discuss all themes.

Trends (predictions) Desires (hopes)


“Reframing”


Prototype

Comparison between

two previous phases

New (strategic) questions

Identify choices (strategies and

associated

actions)

Synthesis


3

6

5

7

Understand context (2) and stakeholders (3)

Explore and combine new concepts (5) and solutions (6) of Ana

A day of Ana (day 1) and solutions in the world of Ana (day 2)

Analysis

4

1

World

of Ana



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Figure 5 – Methodology in the fourth stage of the exercise

The final selected themes and related questions in 2040 were:

1. Knowledge: (i) what is knowledge?; (ii) how is it generated, transmitted, learned, stored, and used?; (iii) who holds it?; (iv) in this context, what is the role of CGEE and its strategy?; and (v) which actions should CGEE take today to ensure such a role in 2040?

2. Society/values: (i) which are societies’ values?; (ii) how interactions in society take place?; (iii) how to prepare todays’ children for such a reality in 2040?; (iv) in this context, what is the role of CGEE and its strategy?; and (v) which actions should CGEE take today to ensure such a role in 2040?

3. Economy: (i) what is value?; (ii) how is value generated, accumulated and distributed?; (iii) how competitiveness between nations take place; (iv) in this context, what is the role



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Figure 5 – Methodology in the fourth stage of the exercise

The final selected themes and related questions in 2040 were:

1. Knowledge: (i) what is knowledge?; (ii) how is it generated, transmitted, learned, stored,

and used?; (iii) who holds it?; (iv) in this context, what is the role of CGEE and its strategy?; and (v) which actions should CGEE take today to ensure such a role in 2040?

2. Society/values: (i) which are societies’ values?; (ii) how interactions in society take

place?; (iii) how to prepare todays’ children for such a reality in 2040?; (iv) in this context,

what is the role of CGEE and its strategy?; and (v) which actions should CGEE take today to ensure such a role in 2040?

3. Economy: (i) what is value?; (ii) how is value generated, accumulated and distributed?;

(iii) how competitiveness between nations take place; (iv) in this context, what is the role


Desires (hopes)


“Reframing”


Prototype



Identify choices

(strategies and associated

actions)

Synthesis


3

6

5

7

Frame (4) and combine (5) insights (from two previous phases) and build new solutions (6)

Prototypes (day 1) and structure for deepening understanding –

5W 1H (day 2)

Analysis

4

1



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of CGEE and its strategy?; and (v) which actions should CGEE take today to ensure such a role in 2040?

4. Governance/politics: (i) what is democracy?; (ii) how legitimation and power are exercised?; (iii) how society organises itself to influence and participate in decisions?; (iv) in this context, what is the role of CGEE and its strategy?; and (v) which actions should CGEE take today to ensure such a role in 2040?

5. Technology: (i) what are the benefits and the drawbacks of technology?; (ii) what moves or leverages innovation or technological evolution?; (iii) how one deals with the relation between technological evolution vs. access and acceptance?; (iv) in this context, what is the role of CGEE and its strategy?; and (v) which actions should CGEE take today to ensure such a role in 2040?

Figure 6 – Methodology in the fifth stage of the exercise



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of CGEE and its strategy?; and (v) which actions should CGEE take today to ensure

such a role in 2040?

4. Governance/politics: (i) what is democracy?; (ii) how legitimation and power are

exercised?; (iii) how society organises itself to influence and participate in decisions?; (iv) in this context, what is the role of CGEE and its strategy?; and (v) which actions should

CGEE take today to ensure such a role in 2040?

5. Technology: (i) what are the benefits and the drawbacks of technology?; (ii) what moves or leverages innovation or technological evolution?; (iii) how one deals with the relation

between technological evolution vs. access and acceptance?; (iv) in this context, what is

the role of CGEE and its strategy?; and (v) which actions should CGEE take today to ensure such a role in 2040?

Figure 6 – Methodology in the fifth stage of the exercise


Desires (hopes)


“Reframing”

Model free of predictive

or normative barriers

Prototype



Identify choices (strategies and

associated

actions)

Synthesis


3

6

5

7

Analysis (4) of context (2) and stakeholders (3), as well as of new concepts (5) and solutions (6) developed in previous stages

Identification and development of new questions (1)

Questions I would like to have answered (day 1) and deepening of

these questions (day 2) in order to find new questions

Analysis

4

1



- 13 -

At the end of the world cafe all five groups gave a brief feedback of their discussions in plenary through either their facilitators or a participant selected by the group. This ignited the two final discussions: (i) looking at the strategic choices and associated actions for CGEE, which should be prioritised and why?; and (ii) how can such a process be used or adapted to other projects or exercises in the Centre? The answers to these questions remain closed as they are strategic, but next section discusses the ways in which it can support the institution to change its approach to developing and addressing new strategic questions, in recognising new issues which merit further investigation via systemic and systematic observations and dialogue, as well as in transforming its way of designing, organising, implementing, managing and evaluating its foresight and strategic studies. To sum up, Figure 7 shows how FL and DT methodologies were married in the sixth and last stage of the project (forth phase of the FL process).

Figure 7 – Methodology in the sixth stage of the exercise



- 13 -

At the end of the world cafe all five groups gave a brief feedback of their discussions in plenary

through either their facilitators or a participant selected by the group. This ignited the two final discussions: (i) looking at the strategic choices and associated actions for CGEE, which should

be prioritised and why?; and (ii) how can such a process be used or adapted to other projects or exercises in the Centre? The answers to these questions remain closed as they are strategic,

but next section discusses the ways in which it can support the institution to change its approach

to developing and addressing new strategic questions, in recognising new issues which merit further investigation via systemic and systematic observations and dialogue, as well as in

transforming its way of designing, organising, implementing, managing and evaluating its

foresight and strategic studies. To sum up, Figure 7 shows how FL and DT methodologies were married in the sixth and last stage of the project (forth phase of the FL process).

Figure 7 – Methodology in the sixth stage of the exercise


Desires (hopes)


“Reframing”


Prototype

Comparison between

two previous phases


Identify choices

(strategies and associated

actions)

Synthesis


3

6

5

7

Based on identified new questions (1), analysis (4) of context (2)

and stakeholders (3), as we as of new concepts (5) to find new

solutions (6)

Identify new choices or strategies and related actions (7)

Use of the world cafe dynamics to deepen and analyse new

questions and recommend actions in the present

Analysis

4

1



- 14 -

Results, discussion and implications

Intended outcomes included learning about the anticipatory assumptions we use to imagine the future of a particular subject under analysis (i.e. cities of the future) in order to be able to expand our understanding of the present by posing new questions. Also, to test the approach and unlock specific methods which will then be embedded in the on-going development of foresight methods and applications at CGEE.

Clear outcomes were expected from the process. The first was to share hopes and fears, expectations and doubts, and discover points in common as well as differences. Second, was to make tacit knowledge explicit and to expand our anticipation data set by incorporating a range of different aspects of the present, including internal specifics like emotions and personal history (what we know about how we use the future and what we imagine about the future). Third, was to bring anticipation out into the open as the way the future exists in the present. Fourth, was to learn something about the anticipatory assumptions we use to think about the future of a particular subject under analysis (i.e. cities of the future) in order to be able pose some new questions in the present.

The results of the project have been outlined in the previous section and in the illustrations depicted in the annexes. However, a critical aspect to achieving the expected outcomes highlighted previously is to understand the premises one uses to imagine the future. An analysis of the results shows how these evolved across the exercise. The main premises are as follows.

FL phase 1 or project stages 1 and 2 – there is a clear trend that the world is worsening and that sustainable solutions may come through a combination of strong governments and local actions, as well as technology advances and a new global governance: “trends point to more violence, pollution, shortage of natural resources, over and elderly populations, social crises, lack of mobility and of quality education, amongst others, transforming life in cities unsustainable... governments become omnipresent and responsible for solving all problems, which leads to interventions in individual lives and generate solutions that are palliative as well as in increased social conflicts... but technological advances, the coordination between policy silos and local or community solutions aligned with those necessary at city, national and international levels lead to a new global governance, which is more participative, as well as the necessary changes to achieve at cities that are more sustainable, human and safe”.

FL phase 2 or project stage 3 – there are new values and forms of interactions that change the ways in which people relate and exert power, and finally there are solutions to all problems leading to better quality of life, which depend upon a connection between ubiquitous technology and nature: “New socio and environmental, ethical and moral, science and spiritual holistic values lead to new social and emotional relations (e.g. families; religion; virtual vs. face-to-face; with men, woman and other species; etc.), with people living in communities and defining individually their work and its value, and with identity and power based on trust and the ability to influence others... but there is still a tension between the individual and the collective... and a greater connection between ubiquitous technology and nature enables the development of solutions to all problems (e.g. food, health, education, etc.) leading to increased quality of life, to more participation in decision making and improved democratic systems, to better communication (e.g. mind and thought, man and animals) that leads to knowledge absorption and instant learning directly from the ‘cloud’, with a number of ‘apps’ monitoring life and making it easier and healthier at the same time it reduces pressures on social security systems... but with solutions comes the end of privacy”.



- 15 -

FL phases 3 and 4 or project stages 4 to 6 are about comparing the previous steps and identifying new questions that once probed may lead to new strategic choices. In this regard is enough to outline that the discussions led to different ways for CGEE to position itself within the familiar system in which it operates and to act towards systemic and transformative innovation in systems that are not yet familiar for the institution. Ultimately, the process described here is also in line with a transformative process that CGEE has been undertaking in the last couple of years regarding its approach to design, organise, implement, manage and evaluate its foresight and strategic studies. It has been moving from a normative and prescriptive approach to one that aims to embrace complexity, emergence and novelty.

This implies developing the ability to “walk on two legs”1: improve or optimise the current system at the same time as it moves towards new and/or disruptive system configurations. Being able to operate both in known systems (inside-in, inside-out, and outside-in), with more efficiency and efficacy, as well as to operate in unknown systems (outside-out), according to Figure 8, will support the institution in crafting strategic questions for itself and its clients. In other words, looking outside systems which we are familiar with will support not only developing and addressing new strategic questions, but also in recognising new issues (e.g. challenges, technologies, social transformations, etc.) through systematic observations and dialogue, and selecting those which are worth further investigating in order to identify new opportunities.

Figure 8 – Operating both in Known and Unknown Systems

Source: adapted from Miller (2007; 2011)

1 Walking on two legs refers to the ability to use closed and open systems thinking at the same time. This

means being able to detect and invent novelty (innovation as “ontological expansion”) using two distinctly different kinds of imaginary future: one in which the model used to imagine the future is constructed with the aim of prediction and the other in which the model is unconstrained by predictive or normative constraints (Miller, 2012).



- 15 -

FL phases 3 and 4 or project stages 4 to 6 are about comparing the previous steps and

identifying new questions that once probed may lead to new strategic choices. In this regard is

enough to outline that the discussions led to different ways for CGEE to position itself within the

familiar system in which it operates and to act towards systemic and transformative innovation in systems that are not yet familiar for the institution. Ultimately, the process described here is also

in line with a transformative process that CGEE has been undertaking in the last couple of years

regarding its approach to design, organise, implement, manage and evaluate its foresight and strategic studies. It has been moving from a normative and prescriptive approach to one that

aims to embrace complexity, emergence and novelty.

This implies developing the ability to “walk on two legs”1: improve or optimise the current system at the same time as it moves towards new and/or disruptive system configurations. Being able to

operate both in known systems (inside-in, inside-out, and outside-in) with more efficiency and

efficacy as well as to operate in unknown systems (outside-out), according to Figure 8, will

support the institution in crafting strategic questions for itself and its clients. In other words, looking outside systems which we are familiar with will support not only developing and

addressing new strategic questions, but also in recognising new issues (e.g. challenges,

technologies, social transformations, etc.) through systematic observations and dialogue, and selecting those which are worth further investigating in order to identify new opportunities.

Figure 8 – Operating both in Known and Unknown Systems

17Walking on two legs refers to the ability to use closed and open systems thinking at the same time. This

means being able to detect and invent novelty (innovation as “ontological expansion”) using two distinctly different kinds of imaginary future: one in which the model used to imagine the future is constructed with

the aim of prediction and the other in which the model is unconstrained by predictive or normative constraints.7

Novelty -> Embrace complexity and uncertainty through the ability to

reframe, to use collective intelligence and to build narratives (outside-out)

Inside-In Inside-Out

Outside-In Outside-Out

Contingency -> Alternative Futures

(inside-out and outside-in)

Optimisation -> Normative and Prescriptive Futures (inside-in)



- 16 -

Based on the above discussion a few shifts are necessary in FTA practice to enable one to move from normative or extrapolative boundaries, thus allowing new information and learning to take place. The required changes are outlined in table 1 below.

Table 1 – Required shifts in FTA Practice

Conclusions

Meeting the intended outcomes or the collective intelligence objectives and criteria require careful design of the process. For FTA practice, this includes defining clear roles for participants, facilitators, and observers, as well as a step-by-step process instruction for each phase, including guidelines on how to handle group dynamics. These should be continuously discussed within the project team prior to each meeting and on the basis of participants so that the design can take into account the specificity of the people in the room as well as the physical aspects of the place and the surrounding context of events. Often it is best to clearly introduce the process instructions in plenary before each breakout group discussion in order to create a good working environment amongst groups as well as contributing to the organisation of the overall process results, rather than leaving decisions about process to each facilitator. The design should also include details related to size and mix of groups, room layout, logistics and supporting materials; all of which are important to create an environment of openness, creativity and permission. Reading material should be given either before the discussions or at the end as a way to help consolidate what participants have learned.

A variety of facilitation processes aimed at moving knowledge from tacit to explicit, as well as inventing new hypotheses, variables and models, were used in the different stages of the process. Methods, such as role-play, storytelling and the use of different media for communicating results, were also used in both breakout groups and plenary sessions, allowing for experiments with different kinds of group dynamics and imaginative processes. Such diversity in the design of the process was key to sparking creativity. Beyond increasing creativity this also made the encounters more pleasant and helped to energize the process. Ensuring that



- 16 -

Source: adapted from Miller (2007; 2011)

Based on the above discussion and recent work developed by Loveridge and Cagnin (2014), the

implications for FTA practice are that a few shifts are necessary to enable one to move from normative or extrapolative boundaries, thus allowing new information and learning to take place. The required changes are outlined in table 1 below.

Table 1 – Required shifts in FTA Practice

From... ... To

! Narrow creativity and imagination ! Inventing futures that change the way we see

and act in the present; using novel frames

! Knowledge, certitude and probability ! Welcoming unknowability, uncertainty and improvisation as sources of novelty

! Systematic ways of predicting, preparing

for or colonizing the future

! Systematic ways of using the future to

expand our understanding of the present (expanding boundaries and constraints)

! Likely/possible/desired evolution of

systems we operate in (thus considered

“known”)

! Inventing the future of “unknown” systems

(outside-out) and implications in these or yet

other “unknown” systems

! Unrevealed biases and describing

extrapolations of the present in the future

! Exposing anticipatory assumptions and

describing discontinuities and “unknowns”

Conclusions

Meeting the intended outcomes or the collective intelligence objectives and criteria require

careful design of the process. For FTA practice, this includes defining clear roles for participants, facilitators, and observers, as well as a step-by-step process instruction for each phase, including guidelines on how to handle group dynamics. These should be continuously discussed

within the project team prior to each meeting and on the basis of participants so that the design can take into account the specificity of the people in the room as well as the physical aspects of the place and the surrounding context of events. Often it is best to clearly introduce the process instructions in plenary before each breakout group discussion in order to create a good working

environment amongst groups as well as contributing to the organisation of the overall process results, rather than leaving decisions about process to each facilitator. The design should also

include details related to size and mix of groups, room layout, logistics and supporting materials;

all of which are important to create an environment of openness, creativity and permission. Reading material should be given either before the discussions or at the end as a way to help

consolidate what participants have learned about an anticipatory systems approach to using the future to understand the present.

A variety of facilitation processes aimed at moving knowledge from tacit to explicit, as well as inventing new hypotheses, variables and models, were used in the different stages of the



- 17 -

individuals can make personal contributions in an interactive, shared sense-making context, is critical for tapping into the collective intelligence of the group and requires a strong emphasis on the design and “real-time” facilitation of the group dynamics.

The dramatic flow of the entire process, which needs to be designed for the specific topic and group of participants, taking into account cultural and social specificities, is an important part of the overall design and one of the keys to a successful process. Here, the combination of FL and DT was critical.

Finally, some sort of process for debriefing or thanking participants must also be designed and the set-up for informing participants about progress and/or further engaging them (e.g. an online network or newsletter or forum discussion) is important so that participants can become part of a growing internal and/or external network.

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank first and foremost Riel Miller for the joint work we have been doing during the last couple of years, which enabled the successful design and implementation of the case described here. Most of the times I am unsure if the words used here are his or mine.

At the same time, thanks to the dedicated internal project team the exercise was accomplished and attained the expected outcomes. The project has been framed and reframed a number of times to comply with internal demands and this was possible only because of everyone’s involvement in the design, adaptation, implementation and analysis across the project. In this regard, thanks to Adriana Badaró, Alessandra Brandão, Henrique Villa, Mayra Juruá, Ivone de Oliveira, Hartur Setubal, Katia Regina, Flávia Jesini, Marcelo Paiva, Lélio Fellows, Tainá Alves, Rayla Costa, Silvana Rolon and Rafael Benjamin (designer).

References

Brown, A. and Isaacs, D. (2005). The World Cafe: Shaping our Futures through Conversations that Matter. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc.

Cagnin, C.; Miller, R.; Frewen, C.; Garrido, L. Coutinho, M. and Nosarzewshi, K. (2013). The Future of Science in Society: Report on the CGEE – Unesco Futures Literacy Workshop. Brasília: Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos. ISBN – 978-85-60755-65-3.

European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (EFILWC) (2003). Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight, Dublin: Wyattville Road, Loughlinstown, Dublin 18, Ireland.

Gitlow, H. S. (2001). Quality Management Systems: A Practical Guide. CRC Press LLC.

Inayatullah, S. (1998). Causal Layered Analysis: Poststructuralism as method. Futures, 30 (8), pp. 815–829.

Inayatullah, S. (2003). Causal Layered Analysis: Unveiling and Transforming the Future. In American Council for the UNU: AC/UNU Millennium Project – Futures Research Methodology – V2.0.

Kumar, V. (2013). 101 Design Methods: A Structured Approach for Driving Innovation in your Organization. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.: Hoboken, New Jersey.

Loveridge, D. (2002). The STEEPV acronym and process – a clarification. Manchester: PREST, Ideas in Progress, Paper Number 29.

Loveridge, D. and Cagnin, C. (2014). FTA as Due Diligence for an Era of Accelerated Interdiction by an Algorithm-Big Data Duo. Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), Brussels, 27-28 November.



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Miller, R. (2006). From Trends to Futures Literacy: Reclaiming the Future. Centre for Strategic Education, Seminar Series Paper, N. 160.

Miller, R. (2007). Futures Literacy: A Hybrid Strategic Scenario Method. Futures: The Journal of Policy, Planning and Future Studies, 39, pp. 341-362.

Miller, R. (2011). Futures Literacy: Embracing Complexity and Using the Future. Ethos, 10, October, pp. 23-28.

Miller, R. (2012). Anticipation: The Discipline of Uncertainty. In Andrew Curry, ed., The Future of Futures, Association of Professional Futurists, Houston, Texas.

Vogt, E. E.; Brown, J. and Isaacs, D. (2003). The Art of Powerful Questions – Catalyzing Insight, Innovation, and Action. California: Whole Systems Associates.

Annexes2

1 – STEEPV Systems 2 – Narrative Week 1

2 All illustrations were developed by Rafael Benjamin.



- 19 -

3 – Newspaper

GAZETA CGEE Ano 15 Outubro de 2040

“Criação do Conselho Mundial da s cidades-estado pa ra bu s car, id en tificar, coordenar e internalizar so l uções locais at ravés de

exp

e

r i ê ncias globais.”

Nova governança global toma forma: novos papeis para governos, instituições e atores

individuais As cidades, atualmente, mostram uma evolução

positiva e diferente daquela imaginada como ideal há

três décadas. Embora 98% da população mundial viva

nas megalópoles, com o que um dia foi considerado

como o campo ou o rural sendo hoje uma extensão das

cidades e parte produtiva das mesmas, existe uma

maior qualidade de vida e de serviços associados

aliados a uma maior representatividade dos cidadãos

nas decisões locais e globais.

As cidades evoluíram para um novo conceito de

cidades-estado. A principal característica desse novo

arranjo, que se faz presente em todo o mundo, é a

inclusão, que se faz realidade na representação de cada

cidade-estado. As cidades são representadas por três

representantes sociais dentre os membros mais

atuantes na articulação local e global para a solução

dos problemas prioritários para a sociedade como um

todo. Esta representação é rotativa e sem uma

durabilidade fixa, mas que não passa de 13 luas cheias

completas. Tal renovação é vista como essencial e,

geralmente, se manifesta em períodos menores de

tempo, de acordo com os problemas prioritários em

pauta a cada lua cheia. Todos os indivíduos participam

na escolha dos problemas prioritários a serem

enfrentados, bem como na busca de possíveis

soluções. Essa participação se dá diretamente ou por

redes, por meio das tecnologias de informação e de

comunicação disponíveis em todo lugar, desde as casas

dos indivíduos, como os locais públicos, passando

pelas vestimentas das pessoas, os ambientes e todos os

gadgets eletrônicos disponíveis. Faz parte da dinâmica

do cotidiano das pessoas nas cidades se encontrarem

para um café, um jogo de futebol ou um chá de fraldas,

com o intuito de debaterem os problemas e as soluções

em pauta tanto nas suas regiões como em outras

cidades-estado do mundo. Todos os dias novos temas,

problemas, desafios e soluções associadas são

debatidos e votados; os indivíduos conseguem se auto-

organizar e influenciar as decisões locais

(comunidades e cidades), nacionais e globais, gerando

maior comprometimento pelas decisões da maioria,

ainda que não consensuais.

Apesar do caráter anárquico da nova governança

global, há uma ordem e um comprometimento

individual nos mais diversos níveis. Assim, da mesma

forma que as cidades-estado, os países possuem

representação rotativa de três membros selecionados

nacionalmente dentre os indivíduos que representam,

naquele momento, cada cidade-estado nacional.

Embora os períodos de seleção de representantes local

e nacional nem sempre coincidam, o importante é que

os problemas e as soluções em pauta estejam

alinhados, já que muitas vezes as melhores soluções

para um determinado contexto venham de experiências

de outros locais. Este modelo flexível e participativo,

iniciado durante a última década, têm funcionado tão

bem que no último ano foi criado o Conselho Mundial

das cidades-estado. Diversos foram os fatores que

levaram ao seu estabelecimento. A ideia do Conselho,

que se reúne uma vez por ano mas que se aproveita das

tecnologias existentes para um debate contínuo, é

buscar identificar, coordenar, e internalizar soluções

para problemas locais se aproveitando das experiências

globais.

“As cidades-estado proporcionam uma

maior qualidade de vida e de serviços

associados aliados a uma maior

representatividade dos cidadãos nas

decisões locais e globais. Sua

representação se dá de forma rotativa e

sem uma durabilidade fixa”.

Este conselho trabalha de forma alinhada à

ONU, onde os representantes de países,

instituições e grupos se articulam, através de

seus representantes locais e nacionais, para

estabelecerem tratados e definirem ações de

comprometimento para a solução dos

problemas que extrapolam fronteiras locais em

um mundo altamente interconectado e cujas

fronteiras geopolíticas se vê em contínua

transformação. Entre os diversos compromissos

assumidos até o presente, cada país se

responsabilizou em promover mudanças

estruturais locais alinhadas com àquelas sendo

promovidas nos outros países e coordenadas

com as demais cidades-estado. Em nível global,

por exemplo, o terrorismo, comum e

exacerbado durante as últimas três décadas, foi

praticamente erradicado. O mundo experimenta

pela primeira vez a paz como preconizada

desde a criação da ONU. como a internet, ou

de saúde (ex. terrorismo biológico), entre

outros. A segurança pública passou a ser um

papel de cada cidadão nas cidades-estado e, em

tempo, foi um dos fatores importantes para a

eleição de seus representantes nos primeiros

anos em que este modelo de organização e de

governança foi testado. Em retrospecto, o

terrorismo surgiu como uma forma das

minorias ou de pequenos grupos radicais de

buscarem mudanças profundas em torno de

ideologias, políticas ou religiosas, longe de

serem consensuais. Com o tempo o terrorismo

evoluiu para incluir conflitos em torno de

recursos naturais como água e energia, de

infraestruturas, como a internet, ou de saúde

(ex. terrorismo biológico), entre outros.

Entretanto, com o surgimento das primeiras

cidades-estado e a importância de se atingir os

objetivos do milênio de forma colaborativa, já

que os recursos naturais estavam cada vez mais

escassos, a pobreza vinha se agravando e a vida

nas cidades estava praticamente insustentável,

há duas décadas foi iniciado um trabalho

conjunto entre países, inicialmente, e entre

cidades-estado, recentemente, que culminou na

melhoria da qualidade de vida das megalópoles

e, como consequência, na criação do Conselho

Mundial das cidades-estado através de um

acordo global.

“Objetivos do milênio foram im p o rtantes,

historicamente, para a criação do Conselho

Mundial das cidades-estado, cuja assinatura

do tratado global trouxe a paz almejada desde

o estabelecimento da ONU”.

No Brasil, logo após a assinatura do acordo

global, a tão sonhada reforma agrária ocorreu.

Diferentemente das tentativas anteriores de

redistribuição de terra, essa reforma,

juntamente com uma reforma tributária e

judiciária, fez com que a terra fosse precificada

em termos de tamanho e de produtividade

associada. Com isso, a produtividade atual no

país mais do que triplicou àquela de uma

década atrás. Com essa mudança o Brasil

tornou-se líder mundial na produção e

exportação sustentável de alimentos, ao mesmo

tempo que garantiu que praticamente 100% de

sua população tivesse acesso às suas

necessidades básicas. Políticas transversais

garantiram uma combinação das soluções

positivas desenvolvidas nas últimas décadas ao

redor do mundo e, assim, foram responsáveis

por uma rápida mudança na distribuição de

renda, diminuindo o fosso entre os

extremamente ricos e os extremamente pobres,

que passaram a ser raridade já que todos,

atualmente, têm acesso a moradia, alimento,

saúde e educação, bem como à serviços

essenciais associados, como segurança e

mobilidade. Esses são temas recorrentes no

debate público e os representantes das cidades-

estado buscam sempre sua melhoria e evolução,

de forma coordenada e integrada nacional e

globalmente.

“Novas medidas e soluções antes descoordenadas foram integradas e

aprofundadas gerando transformações em todas as camadas sociais e

institucionais. Crítico nesse processo foram os avanços tecnológicos, o

envolvimento amplo de indivíduos e ações sistêmicas com foco no logo

prazo”.

O SIS (Sistema Integrado de Saúde), uma reformulação do SUS de duas

décadas atrás, finalmente é capaz de atender 100% da população, acabando

de vez com o comércio da saúde. As pessoas vivem mais e se aposentam

mais tarde, mas o fazem com maior qualidade de vida em comparação a

uma década atrás. No cerne de tantas mudanças estão dois elementos

fundamentais: tecnologia e indivíduos. Exemplos das soluções globais

contextualizadas para cada cidade-estado incluem a tecnologia de

clonagem vegetal e animal, que proporcionou uma revolução na produção

de alimentos e na saúde, aumentando a expectativa de vida e buscando

alternativas para a redução da variabilidade genética, que havia sido um

problema inicialmente. Da mesma forma, a tecnologia foi essencial para

transformações nos sistemas de transporte coletivo e de mobilidade em

geral que, aliado a avanços na saúde, permitiu que qualquer indivíduo

pudesse ir e vir de forma independente, mesmo que fossem tetraplégicos ou

portadores de outras condições antes consideradas “especiais”. Por outro

lado, o conhecimento do cérebro humano avançou em níveis sem

precedentes e a telepatia passou a ser apenas mais uma forma de

comunicação entre indivíduos. Para acabar com o efeito predatório de

atividades como mineração, asteroides e outras galáxias começaram a ser

exploradas para a busca de recursos naturais. Tal exploração foi planejada e

executada de forma sustentável e coordenada, e novos materiais foram

descobertos causando diversas revoluções tecnológicas Para que essas

mudanças estruturais ocorressem, foi necessário uma redução drástica no

tamanho e no papel do governo, que passou a ter um papel de articulador,

de mediador e de coordenador entre indivíduos, grupos e novas

instituições, através dos três representantes de cada cidades-estado e de

cada país. Os indivíduos, assim, passaram a ter maior relevância não

apenas na sua educação, como antes mencionado, mas também na

construção de parcerias com governos e empresas para que todos pudessem

disfrutar de serviços de qualidade. Já as empresas passaram a ter uma

responsabilidade socioambiental em toda sua cadeia de valor,

internalizando esses custos em produtos e serviços bem como nas parcerias

construídas com governos e indivíduos. As empresas compartilham,

portanto, a responsabilidade por serviços essenciais nas cidades com

governos e indivíduos. Com essas mudanças a maioria das empresas

operam de forma global mas não passam de pequenas e médias empresas

em número de colaboradores, já que a automação é capaz de realizar toda

forma de trabalho e as pessoas passam a atuar de forma mais criativa,

gerando inúmeras inovações sociais.

“O p

a

pel de

gov

e

rnos, de instituições e de at ores in di v iduais

foram p

r

ofundamente al terados”.

Crítico para essas transformações foi a habilidade de se internalizar, em

todas as esferas, o pensamento e a ação sistêmicos de longo prazo e o

diálogo participativo. Dessa forma, o papel de think tanks como o CGEE

ficou incerto já em 2040. Embora o novo conceito de cidades-estado hoje

em prática tenha surgido, pela primeira vez, de um estudo realizado pelo

CGEE há uma década, atualmente a instituição vêm buscando um

reposicionamento global tentando desenvolver novos enfoques de futuro e

de avaliação para dar suporte aos indivíduos ao invés de instituições, já que

a necessidade e a natureza de estudos de futuro e de avaliação, bem como o

próprio conceito de gestão da informação e do conhecimento foram

radicalmente transformados. Em resumo, a tecnologia associada ao ser

humano e a uma nova governança global participativa foram os agentes

transformadores da vida nas cidades.

Metáfora

- Árvore: tecnologia e ser humano estão no solo;

a governança no tronco; e nos ramos, folhas,

flores e frutos, os avanços aqui citados


...e a eficiência das políticas sociais que

incentivam a sociedade civil a resgatar sua

cidadania decidindo prioridades e

envolvendo-se na operação de programas

públicos.

OBRA DE COMPOSITOR POP DOS ANOS DE 1980 É RELACIONADA COM OS IDEAIS DAS

CIDADES DE 2040. Hoje 2 entre 3 pessoas vivem nas cidades,

pensando nisso um grupo de especialistas do

CGEE, instituição referência na articulação e

coordenação de estudos estratégicos de alta

complexidade, utilizou em um workshop

aberto - realizado no Parque da Cidade

Virtual, com transmissão e participação de

diferentes países e representações sociais e

políticas – tendo como referencia a música do

compositor Lulu Santos, Tempos Modernos,

para nortear a discussão sobre as premissas e

estratégias adotadas na organização das

cidades atuais.

“Nas últimas décadas, a sociedade, os

governos, as universidades, os institutos de

pesquisa e as indústrias se unem em busca

de s

o

l uç ões ao caos instalado nas ci dades”.

Uma primeira indagação a ser feita é: o

século XXI significaria o fim das cidades ou

o século das cidades? Este cenário a que

fomos sujeitos no passado é resultado de uma

sociedade individualista, baseada mais no ter

do que no ser, sem respeito à natureza, com

fortes desigualdades sociais e econômicas

refletidas em: um sistema de saúde

ineficiente e restrito; ausência de uma

educação de qualidade acessível a todos; com

tecnologias de alto custo e inacessíveis; onde

o preconceito e a intolerância cultural

prejudicam as relações sociais; e os maus

hábitos alimentares e o stress das grandes

cidades prejudicaram a saúde física e mental

da população residente nessas cidades e

demostrou o contínuo agravamento da

situação dada a globalização, o desemprego,

a desigualdade e a exclusão social.

Analisando a relação entre as tendências e os

desejos da sociedade de 30 anos atrás e

comparando com a nossa realidade de hoje

em 2040, a especialista Zuleilda Irla Silva,

participante do evento, diz que: as cidades

que vemos hoje são “resultado de um

trabalho sinérgico que foi realizado pela

premissa de que é preciso as pessoas

mudarem para que as cidades se

transformem. Mais do que uma mudança

econômica e cultural, novos valores foram

estabelecidos, impactando diretamente na

forma de pensar e agir das pessoas de 2040”.

Entre os princípios dessas cidades está a

relação indissociável entre o homem a

natureza. Como exemplo, podemos citar o

Sistema Integrado de Saúde (SIS),

implantado em 2025 nas principais cidades

do mundo, onde os atendimentos são

unificados, abertos a homens, animais e

plantas. A gestão é efetuada, em

coparticipação, por representantes da

comunidade médica, do setor empresarial,

das universidades e, principalmente,

“Eu ve j o a v ida mais cl a ra e f arta

(...)repleta de toda satisfação

(...)que se tem direto do firmamento ao

chão”

(Tempos Modernos, Lulu Santos, 1982) .

das famílias, entendidas como principais

demandantes, mas também principais atores na

prevenção e no tratamento de doenças. Nesta

linha, uma das estratégias foi a alimentação

saudável. Além da saúde, outro serviço social e

essencial - promovido em parte pelo governo,

agora com qualidade, eficiência, eficácia e

acesso irrestrito, é a educação. Também aqui há

participação e corresponsabilidade da sociedade,

das indústrias e das empresas na gestão do

sistema educacional integrado (SEI), em vigor há

dez anos com a criação dos Parques do

Conhecimento (Universidades), com uma

proposta de educação não linear que integra a

capacidade criativa com as demandas

tecnológicas e o conhecimento com a prática. Portanto, em busca de uma vida “repleta de toda

satisfação (...) que se tem direto do firmamento

ao chão”, também a ciência e a tecnologia estão

hoje mais alinhadas com as demandas,

propiciando a integração social e melhorando a

qualidade de vida e de relacionamento entre as

pessoas. Tecnologias de baixo custo e acessíveis

a todos são desenvolvidas para melhorar a

qualidade de vida, do homem e da natureza que

buscam uma harmonia entre o individual e o

coletivo.

Assim, Cidades sustentáveis,

humanas e seguras estão sendo

construídas.

Na saúde, pesquisas concentram esforços em

curas de graves doenças – as existentes há

mais tempo e as novas, surgidas de

mutações - mas também na prevenção e em

tratamentos alternativos. Na educação, as

metodologias e as técnicas são mais

inclusivas e participativas. O saber não é

linear e estático, pode ser compreendido e

construído de qualquer forma, é dinâmico,

sem fronteiras e sem amarras. Um dos

responsáveis pela organização do evento, o

especialista itinerante do CGEE, Malaquias

Temosqles, lembra que “valores como

tolerância e respeito, aceitação em relação à

diversidade cultural, sexual, política,

religiosa e de espécie,” foram essenciais

para o começo de uma nova mentalidade que

tem incentivado o envolvimento sistêmico

de todos na concepção e realização das

nossas cidades atuais e que outra

providência é ampliar a abrangência...

“(…) u

m

no vo c

o

me ço de era

De gente fina, elegante e sincera

Com habilidade

Pra dizer ma i s si m do que nã o” .

(Tempos Modernos, Lulu Santos,

1982)


Atleta centenário chama a atenção no Campeonato Aberto de Natação do Rio Tietê e bate recorde

mundial dos 5km da categoria S-85

(atletas acima de 85).

Na sua 4ª edição, desde que o rio foi totalmente

recuperado e despoluído graças a uma ação

conjunta das três esferas de Governo, da

sociedade local, com decisiva participação das

instituições representativas do terceiro setor, a

participação de atletas acima de 85 anos

surpreendeu e representou cerca de 10% do total

dos atletas inscritos ( o atleta mais experiente

tinha 110 anos) no campeonato. Um conjunto de

fatores explica o aumento da participação de

atletas acima de 85 anos na competição do Rio

Tietê. A expressiva participação dessas pessoas

se deve, dentre outras razões, pela nova geração

de medicamentos ( como o DINAMYTE – x que

libera nanoparticulas que aceleram o

metabolismo humano propiciando um boomm

energético nos seus usuários) e alimentos

nutracêuticos, que promovem melhoria na saúde

física e mental, resultando numa vida esportiva (e

social) significativamente ampliada. Os hábitos

saudáveis desse grupo e são comprovados pelo

conceito AAA+ que boa parte dos participantes

recebeu do aplicativo Açaí Health desenvolvido

pela Peach Tecnology (app. oriundo de uma joint

venture entre o capital privado e o CGEETech).

Deve-se ressaltar ainda que, para a mudança de

comportamento observado, tem decisiva

contribuição as “Arenas de Convivência”

(espaços de prática esportiva e de lazer

comunitário) nas cidades do entorno das grandes

megalópoles nacionais, que oferecem novos

meios e mecanismos de formação e qualificação

a atletas de todas as idades. As Arenas são

iniciativas que surgiram da determinação coletiva

com apoio público e privado, em parceira com

diversos movimentos organizados da sociedade

local. O sucesso do projeto possibilitou, a partir

do mesmo modelo idealizado, a criação de várias

estruturas similares que hoje estão espalhadas

pelas principais cidades do País. Importante

ressaltar que o colaborador do CGEE preza por

valores familiares que estão no centro das

transformações sociais que presidiram os novos

conceitos das famílias brasileiras nos últimos

anos, onde o ser é mais relevante do que o ter e

compromissos de solidariedade e de

responsabilidade econômica e de convivência

harmônica com a diversidade e fazem parte da

ética coletiva incorporada à cultura antropológica

da nova família brasileira.

O projeto inicial (SPGreen) foi

implementado em 2028, na

localidade de Sorontim (antigos

municípios de Sorocaba e

Votorantin) e seu êxito permitiu

sua expansão para outras

localidades do País. Para sua

execução, contou com o apoio

técnico e financeiro das maiores

empresas brasileiras, em especial

das chamadas “neoempreiteiras”

que surgiram após o vácuo

deixado pelo desaparecimento das

antigas empreiteiras nacionais,

cujo padrão ético foi questionado.

Trata-se de um processo de

mudança exigido pelos

consumidores, cada vez mais

exigentes quanto ao banimento

das práticas de corrupção e das

formas antiéticas de negócios que

perduraram na organização

anterior do Estado Brasileiro,

processo esse que conta com

ampla utilização de novos

materiais, de novas práticas

gerenciais e com preceitos como a

responsabilidade social

presumida.

Segundo o colaborador do CGEE

– “a oportunidade de continuar

socialmente produtivo e as novas

formas de interação com

ambientes e com atores sociais

propicia estímulos concretos à

busca da longevidade, o que tem

exercido forte influencia na

minha saúde mental, espiritual e

física.”

Mais informações sobre o Projeto

Ecovilas, sobre o CGEE, sobre a

CGEETech ou sobre o board de

colaboradores e suas estórias

estão disponíveis em holograma

6D®( Dúvidas, Destinos,

Dinamismo, Diversão,

Diversidade e Desenvolvimento)

do Gazeta CGEE.

Assim, Cidades sustentáveis,

humanas e seguras estão sendo

construídas.

Colaborador, que é parceiro do CGEE, faz história e vence a

prova masculina em sua categoria da tradicional competição

no rio Tietê.

Militante ferrenho na gestão das novas tecnologias do

quaternário (o setor que agrupa atividades de produção do saber,

da comunicação. A era pós-industrial esta baseada na tríade –

informação, comunicação e hi-tech. O quaternário é exatamente

o setor que agrega as três dimensões) nos últimos 15 anos, o

parceiro do CGEE engajou-se num projeto que abriga um novo

conceito de morar. Reside com sua esposa na Ecovila SP Green

que abriga pouco mais de 500 habitantes. A Ecovila foi um dos

primeiros “ambientes habitacionais” verdes e limpos que foram

criados há pouco mais de 10 anos para desconcentrar as ações

antrópicas na megalópole, que se encontrava em situação de

estrangulamento total em 2025. O projeto Ecovila foi elaborado

pelos maiores urbanistas do País, com apoio do Parque do

Conhecimento de Brasília (antiga UnB) com a participação da

Rede Sustentabilidade (um movimento suprapartidário que

reúne a iniciativa privada, o terceiro setor e grupos organizados

da sociedade civil, da academia e de gestores governamentais,

dentre outros). A Ecovila SP Green é uma das 250 Ecovilas

existentes no entorno das grandes megalópoles brasileiras. Elas

estão localizadas fora do perímetro urbano de 100 km do limite

territorial das megalópoles, são servidos pelo modal

“monotrilhos suspensos bioenergéticos” e contam com

infraestrutura própria e sustentável de serviços e de mobilidade

múltipla, com a utilização do modelo urban farms e de

produção intensiva de energia solar, dentre outras opções

integradas ao modelo de sustentabilidade. Para que o sucesso

desse projeto fosse alcançado, comunidades de experts de vários

parques do conhecimento associaram-se a especialistas públicos

e privados e juntos idealizaram o projeto baseado na filosofia

davinciana que congrega várias áreas do saber: mobilidade,

acessibilidade e natureza de modo a oferecer mais qualidade de

vida e preservação do meio ambiente do entorno da grande São

Paulo. Pesquisas junto às populações afetadas pelos problemas

relacionados com moradia e mobilidade foram realizadas de

modo a fundamentar o estudo prévio e a construção da ideia do

projeto, cujo foco central residia na desconcentração humana

dos grandes centros. Constatou-se na investigação, que o

sentimento de felicidade interior e entre as pessoas supera

atualmente o desejo consumista, o que evidencia latente

mudança de comportamento social. Nesse novo contexto, as

demandas por fatores como lazer e cultura se sobrepõem ao

desejo de consumo e ao acumulo de bens materiais, dando

oportunidade ao indivíduo de usufruir de ambientes virtuais

para assistir peças de teatro e sessões de cinema

simultaneamente com outros grupos no mundo, o que propicia

uma maior interação das pessoas.


As pessoas se tornariam mais confusas e passivas,

esperando que a solução de todos os problemas fossem de

responsabilidade única e exclusiva de governos. As

relações sociais se deteriorariam e as sociedades

passariam a ser menos tolerantes com o diferente, desde

questões religiosas como de gênero se tornariam fontes de

conflitos entre indivíduos, levando ao fim de inúmeros

casamentos heterossexuais e ao aumento de

relacionamentos entre iguais; relações homossexuais,

bissexuais e transexuais passariam a ser a norma.

Relações interpessoais face-a-face passariam a ser, cada

vez mais, raridade, sendo cada vez mais comum relações

virtuais. Valores como a união familiar e o coletivo

deixariam de existir, e o individualismo imperaria nas

cidades.

Nesse contexto, os governos passariam a ser onipresentes

e a intervir na vida pessoal dos indivíduos, principalmente

nos países ainda em desenvolvimento, que seriam

caracterizados como tal devido à existência de extremos

de riqueza e de pobreza, sendo que apenas os primeiros

teriam acesso à serviços essenciais. Conflitos entre

governos e grupos sociais ou religiosos fariam parte das

manchetes diárias dos jornais, bem como distintas formas

de repressão, veladas ou diretas. As soluções encontradas,

em sua maioria, seriam apenas paliativas. Haveria,

entretanto, evoluções positivas na direção de cidades mais

sustentáveis, seguras e humanas, em torno de 2040, mas

que ainda precisariam ser amplamente conhecidas e

adaptadas a cada contexto para permitirem uma mudança

efetiva na vida das cidades. Exemplos incluiriam: a

experimentação de transporte e combustíveis alternativos,

como o carro movido a água, o carro que voa, transportes

coletivos mais eficientes e de qualidade e o tele-

transporte, que passaria a ser uma realidade possível nas

décadas vindouras, além de viagens espaciais para a faixa

mais rica da população, o que permitiria o nascimento do

primeiro ser humano fora da terra; as hortas comunitárias

como uma solução à fome para as camadas mais pobres

da população e que, geralmente, vivem às margens das

cidades; a onipresença da internet ou a

“interconectividade das coisas”;; o bairros independentes

que ofereceriam todos os serviços essenciais aos seus

moradores mesmo que sendo facilmente acessíveis de

qualquer ponto da cidade devido a uma fácil

interconectividade de serviços, entre outros. Estes

exemplos levariam parte das populações das cidades a

acreditarem que uma mudança fosse viável.

Retrospectiva: como se imaginavam as cidades do futuro há três décadas? Após o ano de 2014 e pelas décadas seguintes os

problemas e crises sociais, ambientais e

econômicos se agravariam. Um conjunto de

fatores incluindo poluição, superpopulação e

violência impactariam negativamente a entrega

de serviços essenciais e as relações sociais,

tornando a vida nas cidades praticamente

insustentável. As sociedades envelheceriam e as

cidades não evoluiriam para proporcionar acesso

e mobilidade para os idosos, que se tornam

marginalizados. O trânsito nas cidades se tornaria

caótico, sendo responsável pela morte de

centenas de pessoas todos os dias, e os serviços

de transporte coletivo colapsariam. O aumento

vertiginoso da poluição impactaria de forma

praticamente irreversível os ecossistemas em

torno das cidades, afetando negativamente

serviços como o abastecimento de água e energia,

saneamento e saúde. A falta de investimentos em

educação apenas agravaria os impactos negativos

do ser humano na natureza. Recursos naturais

como água potável e petróleo se tornariam

escassos e fonte de conflitos entre países,

justamente quando as fronteiras geopolíticas

tivessem diminuído devido à intensificação da

globalização da economia e de uma

interconectividade sem precedentes; a internet

passaria a ser tão valorizada quanto, por

exemplo, a energia. Empresas e fluxos

econômicos deixariam de ser locais e o mundo

agiria com um único bloco econômico, com

fluxos de recursos em contínua mutação de

acordo com uma complexa combinação de

fatores políticos, econômicos e sociais, que

tornaria a competição global ainda mais

predatória e baseada em quem oferecesse mais

aos mercados financeiros, a cada minuto. Como

resultado, a falta de privacidade individual e de

segurança coletiva chegariam a níveis nunca

antes imaginados. A disparidade entre ricos e

pobres extrapolaria fronteiras geopolíticas e

passaria a ser uma realidade em todas as partes

do mudo. Empresas e fluxos econômicos

deixariam de ser locais e o mundo agiria com um

único bloco econômico, com fluxos de recursos

em contínua mutação de acordo com uma

complexa combinação de fatores políticos,

econômicos e sociais, que tornaria a competição

global ainda mais predatória e baseada em quem

oferecesse mais aos mercados financeiros, a cada

minuto. Como resultado, a falta de privacidade

individual e de segurança coletiva chegariam a

níveis nunca antes imaginados. A disparidade

entre ricos e pobres extrapolaria fronteiras

geopolíticas e passaria a ser uma realidade em

todas as partes do mudo.

“Os p

r

ob lemas e crises so ci ais,

ambientais e econômicos se

aprofundam impactando

negativamente a entrega de

serviços e as relações so ci ais.”

Em sua maioria, a cidade

vislumbrada como possível e ideal

seria aquela em que todos teriam

acesso à educação e à serviços

sociais essenciais de qualidade

providos pelo governo com base no

tripé respeito, comprometimento e

competência, onde a riqueza

deixaria de ter um mero valor

econômico para incorporar valores

como a arte e a natureza; onde

produtos e serviços incorporassem

no seu valor os aspectos e impactos

socioambientais associados; onde o

lazer seria associado ao esporte, à

vida em comunidade e em família;

onde o idoso e o jovem teriam

acesso à uma qualidade de vida

condizente com suas necessidades;

onde uma diversidade de fontes

alternativas, descentralizadas,

limpas e renováveis de energia

passariam a suprir às necessidades

das cidades frente à crescente falta

de petróleo; onde o trabalho em

rede faria parte do dia a dia das

pessoas em um mundo amplamente

interconectado mas que, ao mesmo

tempo, permitiria e fomentaria

relacionamentos interpessoais mais

humanos e profundos; onde haveria

mais tolerância à diversidade

cultural, sexual, política e religiosa;

onde a tecnologia seria capaz de

suprir a necessidade de alimentos

de todos para que fosse possível

uma vida comum e em paz; onde

haveria uma desconcentração das

atividades econômicas e produtivas;

onde o sistema jurídico fosse ágil,

de fácil acesso a todos e justo; e,

finalmente, com onde houvesse

mais igualdade de renda e maior

participação e responsabilidade dos

indivíduos na vida pública e

comunitária.

“As m

e

di das e s oluções são

paliativas, mas apontam a

possibilidade de mudança em

direção à cidades mais

sustentáveis, hu ma nas e

seg

u

ras .”



- 20 -

4 – Narratives Week 2

5 – Ana and her world



- 21 -

6 – One day of Ana

7 – Prototypes

developing a transformative business ......using the design thinking (dt) approach for such purpose....

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