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The European Foundry Association CAEF General Engineering Section Meeting Düsseldorf 22 March 2017
CAEF
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Verhalten im Brandfall / bei Unfällen Ruhe bewahren! • Menschen retten, gefährdete Personen warnen
• Erste Hilfe leisten, Unfallstelle absichern
• Hilfe herbeiholen – Ersthelfer Tel. 555
• Feuer / Unfall melden 0-112 1 Wer meldet? 2 Wo brennt es / ist der Unfall geschehen? 3 Was brennt / ist geschehen? 4 Wie viele Verletzte, Art der Verletzung? 5 Warten auf Rückfragen!
• Feuer bekämpfen, Feuerlöscher einsetzen OHNE sich oder Andere zu gefährden
• In Sicherheit bringen, Türen und Fenster schließen, Fluchtwegen folgen, keine Aufzüge benutzen
• Sammelplatz: Wiese neben Hofeinfahrt aufsuchen
• Informieren Sie sich über die Flucht- und Rettungswege und die Feuerlöscher!
Verbandskasten: Sanitätsraum (neben Haupteingang)
Defibrillator: Flur neben Empfang
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Smoking Area is located at the back of the Building Please follow the Signs:
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Purpose of our meeting
• Information exchange • Discussion of economic situation • Raw materials • Energy • Technical issues • Etc. • Non-topics for our meetings:
Prices Quotas Concrete customer relationships Any measures with indirect effect on the topics mentioned above Statistics have to respect these issues
Almost no problem: Purchasing subjects Raw materials statistics Anonymous benchmark surveys
Please take note of the CAEF antitrust compliance guideline
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Current market situation (General aspects)
• General statements on e.g. the following topics: • Production volumes / Orders in stock
• Cancellation of orders
• Raw materials availability
• Status and development of energy price
• Planned investments
• Mid-term perspectives of production
The statements may not be linked to a concrete product or customer
O:\BDG\CAEF\Competition law slides.pptx
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Agenda
1. Welcome
2. Industry 4.0 – “Kurtz Eisenguss – Smart foundry” presentation by Matthias
Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa
3. General economic situation - Statement by Heiko Lickfett
4. Any other business
5. Date and venue of the next meeting
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- 7 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Agenda
1. Welcome
2. Industry 4.0 – “Kurtz Eisenguss – Smart foundry” presentation by Matthias
Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa
3. General economic situation - Statement by Heiko Lickfett
4. Any other business
5. Date and venue of the next meeting
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- 8 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
• Black Magic vs Smart Foundry
• Equipment interactive connected
• Data mining
• Improvement and stabilisation of all processes
• Leads to maximized efficiency Energy and Material Flexibility, Speed etc.
• That´s all?
Future Trend: Smart Foundry Smart Production needs Smart Castings
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- 9 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Agenda
1. Welcome
2. Industry 4.0 – “Kurtz Eisenguss – Smart foundry” presentation by Matthias
Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa
3. General economic situation - Statement by Heiko Lickfett
4. Any other business
5. Date and venue of the next meeting
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- 10 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Economy and Key Indicators Background for Foundry Business
Bild: Fotolia
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- 11 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
1,7 1,6 1,61,9
1,5 1,61,3 1,3
1,6
0,90,7 0,8
3,2
2,32,1
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain
World Economic Outlook 2016-2018
Source: IMF, January 2017, Stat BA
Change in % yoy
Euro: underrated for Germany/ overrated for South of Europe Germany/ France/ Italy: Pre Election Status Spain: Less Dynamic
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- 12 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan92
Jan93
Jan94
Jan95
Jan96
Jan97
Jan98
Jan99
Jan00
Jan01
Jan02
Jan03
Jan04
Jan05
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
Jan16
Jan17
Jan18
Indu
stria
l Pro
duct
ion
Chan
ge in
% y
oy
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Busi
ness
Clim
ate
Industrial Production Business Climate
Source: Eurostat, Industrial Production December 2016
Euro Area Business Climate Indicator February 2017 Different signals!
Snapshot February: In February 2017, the Business Climate increased slightly. Managers' views on both their overall and export order books improved strongly. Meanwhile, managers'
assessments of their stocks of finished products and their production expectations worsened.
Economic cycle Economic cycle Investment boom
Recession
Recovery
No (!) cycle…and now?
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2,01,5 1,4 1,6
2,3 2,5
6,7 6,56,0
6,67,2
7,7
-0,6
1,1 1,2
0,2
1,5
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,020
16
2017
2018
2016
2017
2018
2016
2017
2018
2016
2017
2018
2016
2017
2018
2016
2017
2018
UK USA China India Russia Brazil
World Economic Outlook – 2016-2018
Source: IMF, January 2017
Change in % yoy
• Investmenbt Impulses in the USA = Capital Drain in Emerging Countries?
• OPECAgreement stable? • Impact of US Protectionism? • Official Brexit Declaration
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51,5
55,0
51,2 51,0
53,5
55,2 55,0
56,4
51,8
53,6
50,9
53,053,3
55,6
49,9
48,8
54,4
50,4
52,4
54,7
46,3
44,0
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
USA China EuroArea
Germany France Italy Spain Turkey India Russia Brazil
Selected Countries Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) October 2016 – January 2017
Source: Markit, http://de.tradingeconomics.com/
Index
Index above 50 points = increasing economy (dominated by industrial production and service)
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Euphoric Mood on the one Hand…
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Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 1720
30
40
50
60
70
80
Quelle: Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM), USA PMI works with a corresponding level of ca. 43 %!
USA Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) January 2017 „Trump-Impact“!
New Orders
Difference to other PMI because of the higher share of private consumption: Index above 43 points = expansion of the overall economy Comments from the panel:
• “Strong! Production is increasing and we
are adding capacity.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
• “Business looks stronger moving into the first quarter of 2017.” (Primary Metals)
• “Sales bookings are exceeding expectations. We are starting to see supply shortages in
hot rolled steel due to the curtailment of imports.” (Machinery)
• “Business conditions are good, demand is generally increasing.” (Miscellaneous
Manufacturing) • “Conditions and outlook remain positive.
Asset utilization remains high.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
• “Steady demand from automotive.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
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Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 1720
30
40
50
60
70
80
Quelle: Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM), USA PMI works with a corresponding level of ca. 43 %!
USA Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) February 2017 „Trump-Impact – no fleeting star“?
New Orders
Difference to other PMI because of the higher share of private consumption: Index above 43 points = expansion of the overall economy Comments from the panel:
• “Business is improving”
(Chemical Products) • “Product demand continues to be solid.”
(Plastics & Rubber Products) • “Bookings are heavy early in the season.
Expect robust first half of the year.” (Primary Metals)
• “Sales and business continue to be strong and increasing.” (Machinery)
• “Business holding steady in Q1.” (Transportation Equipment)
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56,0
57,7
51,051,7
55,2 55,4
56,456,8
53,6
52,2
53,0
55,055,6
54,8
48,8
49,750,4 50,7
54,7
52,5
44,0
46,9
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
USA China EuroArea
Germany France Italy Spain Turkey India Russia Brazil
Selected Countries Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) January 2017 – February 2017
Source: Markit, http://de.tradingeconomics.com/
Index
Index above 50 points = increasing economy (dominated by industrial production and service)
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Feelings of Insecurity on the other Hand…
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- 20 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Business Climate Germany Industrial Supplier February 2017
Source: Ifo München, ArGeZ Arbeitsgemeinschaft Zulieferindustrie Saisonbereinigt, Saldo aus positiven und negativen Bewertungen,
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18
Saldo der positiven und negativen Meldungen
Current Status Expectations
Uncertainties about the months to come
Foundries
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Main Customer Industries – current status
Bild: Siemens
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Industrial Production EU December 2016
Source: Eurostat
Industrial Production without Automotive
Industrial Production including Automotive
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USA: Positive (Dynamic Peak reached?) China: VAT Supportprogram for small cars with max.1.6 l engines Europe: Recovery, but limited volume Russia: Chance for bottom out? Brazil: Recession
Passenger Cars Sales (not! Production) 2016
Source: VDA
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USA: in the red China: VAT Supportprogram reduced but active Europe: Recovery, but limited volume Russia: Chance for bottom out? Brazil: Recession
Passenger Cars Sales (not! Production) Feb 2017
Source: VDA
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Market Limitations – Passenger Cars Production in der EU 1990-2013
Quelle: ACEA
2016 = 15,1 Mill. Units
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Global Passenger Cars Sales and Production Forecast 2017 Reduced Dynamic
Sales Production Region 2017 2017 World + 2-3% + 2-3% USA ± 0% - 1% China + 5% + 5% W-Europe + 1% ± 0% New EU Countries + 6% ± 0% Germany ± 0% - 2% France + 2% + 3% UK - 6% ± 0% Spain + 7% ± 0% Italy + 7% + 2% Russia + 5% + 5% Turkey - 6% + 2% Brazil ± 0% + 2% Japan + 1% ± 0%
Picture: Fotolia Source: VDA, February 2017
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50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone
Incoming Orders (IO) Vehicle Industry Germany January 2017
External Orders and Domestic Demand under pressure
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, saisonal adjusted, calculation BDG
change in % against period a year before, cumulative
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40 branches
roundabout 20 identified as castings intensive
e.g.
• Machine Tool Industry
• Hydraulics and Pneumatics
• Agricultural Machinery
• Metallurgical Plants and Rolling Mills
• E.g. Incoming orders for Germany:
General Engineering – Light and Shadow close together 2016 Stagnation, Forecast 2017: only plus 1 % picture: MS
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50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Prod Maschinenbau AE Maschinenbau
Incoming Orders (IO) General Engineering Germany January 2017
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
• Incoming orders Germany =>1/3 of the EU market • More than 4 years in a row nearly a flat line!
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50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone
Incoming Orders (IO) Tool Machine Industry Germany January 2017
e.g. Italy: national coordination of investment support programs "Agenzia Nazionale die Gestione dei Fondi Strutturali e FAS« e.g. USA: Impulses from the new tax System?
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
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50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AE Pumpen und Kompressoren
Incoming Orders Pumps and Compressors Germany January 2017
Pumps and Compressors are suffering because of low investment level at the mining industry, base chemicals etc.
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
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0
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100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone
Incoming Orders Engines/Turbines Germany January 2017
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone
Incoming Orders Textile Machinery Germany January 2017
Orders from Southern Europe are very strong! Extra EU: Orders under pressure!
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
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0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AE Bergbau-, Baustoff- und Baumaschinen
Incoming Orders Mining Equipment and Building Machinery Germany January 2017
Building Machines with positve forecast (e.g. fork lift trucks are running well) but Mining Equipment and Exploration Components with different signals! It depends on the development of oil/gas and raw material prices!
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
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Building Machines – Stock Exchange Development after the US Elections: Caterpillar plus 26%, Case plus 25%!
Source: Börse Frankfurt, finanzen.net
Building Machines ready to be delivered to support the „new wall in the USA“
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AE Armaturen
Incoming Order Valves and Fittings Germany January 2017
Big Plant Industry (Power Plants, Chemical Plants) = weak Building Industry = strong
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
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AE gesamt
Incoming Orders Plastics- and Rubber Machines Germany January 2017
Engineering Sector with positive Forecast 2017!
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
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AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone
Incoming Orders Plastics- and Rubber Machines Germany January 2017
Orders from Southern Europe with strong positive trend!
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
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Bottom out!.
Minus 45%!
Incoming Orders Agriculture Machinery Germany January 2017
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
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European Agricultural Machinery January 2017 Business Climate still negative but with bottom out
Quelle: CEMA
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European Agricultural Machinery February 2017 Business Climate has passed the zero line
Quelle: CEMA
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- 42 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
European Agricultural Machinery March 2017 Business Climate with stable imporvemnet
Quelle: CEMA
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AE Inland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone
Incoming Orders Food Processing and Packaging Germany January 2017
Positive Impulses from the South of Europe but weak demand in Germany
Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG
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Scenarios for world steelmaking capacity growth
Source: OECD 2016
Overcapacities on a global level!
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Scenarios for world steelmaking capacity growth until 2018
Source: OECD 2016
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Short Summary and Open Questions
Bild: Fotolia, Nesterov Vasily;
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• USA How quickly protectionism is working? Results of NAFTA renegotiations? Investmentboom with temporary positive impact for European plant manufacturer? Direct tax penalties or modification of the tax system (border adjustment tax)?
• China Real growth vs. official data Reduction of capacity or delaying tactic and start of new capacities? Intensive penetration of the European markets if the USA close the doors?
• EU/ Brexit und Co.
Impact of Brexit = dumpening effect for investments or impulses driven by relocation processes?
Open Questions and Uncertainties 2017
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- 48 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
• Passenger cars:
Dynamic peak passed in USA, saturation point reached in Europe? Weakness in Russia and South America, China with extended support program!
•
• General Engineering: 2017 chance for a stable „black zero“ plus something after years of stagnation Positive: automation, robotics and rubber- and plastic machines, building machines wind turbines (volume ok, prices under pressure) Bottom out: mining, agrícultural, paper machines, foundry machines low capacity utilisation in the EU
• Further Impulses possible from the Building Industry (on the longterm!)
Risks • Neverending story: Overcapacities – hard price competition – structural change • „Trump“-Impact and raising key interest rates in the USA will lead to
further capital outflow from emerging markets Brexit declaration is dumpening investments
Current Perspectives for the Foundries
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- 49 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Agenda
1. Welcome
2. Industry 4.0 – “Kurtz Eisenguss – Smart foundry” presentation by Matthias
Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa
3. General economic situation - Statement by Heiko Lickfett Roundtable
4. Any other business
5. Date and venue of the next meeting
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- 50 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Round Table
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- 51 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Purpose of our meeting
• Information exchange • Discussion of economic situation • Raw materials • Energy • Technical issues • Etc. • Non-topics for our meetings:
Prices Quotas Concrete customer relationships Any measures with indirect effect on the topics mentioned above Statistics have to respect these issues
Almost no problem: Purchasing subjects Raw materials statistics Anonymous benchmark surveys
Please take note of the CAEF antitrust compliance guideline
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- 52 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Current market situation (General aspects)
• General statements on e.g. the following topics: • Production volumes / Orders in stock
• Cancellation of orders
• Raw materials availability
• Status and development of energy price
• Planned investments
• Mid-term perspectives of production
The statements may not be linked to a concrete product or customer
O:\BDG\CAEF\Competition law slides.pptx
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Key Figures German Foundry Industry
Bild
: So
schi
nski
Source: Stat BA, BDG, preliminary data
Production: 5.165 m. t thereof Fe: 3.916 m. t, NF: 1.249 m. t Turnover: ca. 12.559 bn. € * Employees: 77 400 Mitarbeiter * Fe: 42 100; NF: 35 300 * (Companies. >50 Empl.)
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- 54 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
German Foundry Industry 2016 by Material (Production)
Source: BDG, Stat. BA
Ferrous complete 3.916 m. t -5.0 % thereof Iron castings 2.232 m. t, -5.8 % Ductile castings 1.510 m. t, -3.2 % Steel castings 174 200 t, -8.6 %
Non-ferrous complete 1.249 m. t +2.2 % thereof Aluminium 1.097 t, +2.3 % Magnesium 17 400 t, +14.2 %, Copper 78 500 t, -1.2 % Zinc 56 200 t, +2.9 %
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Fahrzeugbau Maschinenbau Gießerei-Industrie
Foundry Industry 01.2017 10,4 %
Quelle: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG
Change in % against previous year
Vehicle Industry 01.2017 1,9 %
Engineering Industry 01.2017 + 2,8 %
Foundry Industry Incoming Orders Germany Pace to recovery!
Foundry Industry 01-12.2016 - 0,6 %
Vehicle Industry 01-12.2016 3,4 %
Engineering Industry 01-12.2016 - 0,8 %
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Iron castings 01.2017 7,8 %
Incoming Orders Iron castings: Bottom out! Incoming Orders Steel castings: High volatility on low level!
Steel castings 01.2017 - 1,0 %
Quelle: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG
Change in % against previous year
Vehicle Industry 01.2017 1,9 %
Engineering Industry 01.2017 + 2,8 %
Iron castings 01-12.2016 - 1,5 %
Steel castings 01-12.2016 - 10,9 %
Vehicle Industry 01-12.2016 3,4 %
Engineering Industry 01-12.2016 - 0,8 %
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Incoming Orders Non Ferrous castings: Peak reached?
Lightmetal castings 01.2017 14,1 %
Heavy Metal castings 01.2017 20,1 %
Quelle: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG
Change in % against previous year
Vehicle Industry 01.2017 1,9 %
Engineering Industry 01.2017 + 2,8 %
Lightmetal castings 01-12.2016 2,4 %
Heavy Metal castings 01-12.2016 1,9 %
Vehicle Industry 01-12.2016 3,4 %
Engineering Industry 01-12.2016 - 0,8 %
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- 58 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Agenda
1. Welcome
2. Industry 4.0 – “Kurtz Eisenguss – Smart foundry” presentation by Matthias
Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa
3. General economic situation - Statement by Heiko Lickfett
4. Any other business
5. Date and venue of the next meeting
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- 59 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
Agenda
1. Welcome
2. Industry 4.0 – “Kurtz Eisenguss – Smart foundry” presentation by Matthias
Hofmann, Kurtz Ersa
3. General economic situation - Statement by Heiko Lickfett
4. Any other business
5. Date and venue of the next meeting
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- 60 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
European Foundry Industry Expectations
Source: Eisenwerk Brühl, Bernd Rosenbaum
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Mai08
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Mai12
Sep12
Jan13
Mai13
Sep13
Jan14
Mai14
Sep14
Jan15
Mai15
Sep15
Jan16
Mai16
Sep16
Jan17
current situation expectations for six months
FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (ferrous) December 2016
Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2014 (incl. Croatia)
Expectations under pressure since autumn 2015: Downward trend on the ferrous side
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Jan14
Mai14
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Mai15
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Jan16
Mai16
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Jan17
current situation expectations for six months
FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (non-ferrous) December 2016
Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2014 (incl. Croatia)
Quite optimistic: Non-ferrous foundries are expecting continuation of the positive trends!
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Jan11
Mai11
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Jan12
Mai12
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Jan13
Mai13
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Jan14
Mai14
Sep14
Jan15
Mai15
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Jan16
Mai16
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Jan17
current situation expectations for six months
FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (steel castings) December 2016
Data collection has started December 2013
Source CAEF, Index Nov 2013 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2014 (incl. Croatia)
Current status weak and expectations extremely volatile!