February 2002 Page 1
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
"Trendpfade und ihre Eintrittstickets "Das Zusammenspiel potentieller Interaktionsfelder und ihrer Effekte in der
Technologie Revolution bis 2015
Unterscheiden Sie zwischen "Erfinden der Zukunft" und „Vorhersagen der Zukunft"
Michael Klemen
February 2002 Page 2
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
How to do it1.
Laufendes
Geschäft
heute kurzfristig mittelfristig langfristig
Extrapolieren
über Roadmaps
Produkte
Technologien
Kunden
Retropolieren
aus Szenarien
Neue
Märkte
Neue
Kundenanforderungen
Neue
Technologien
Neue
Geschäftsmöglichkeiten
Zeithorizont
Einflussfaktoren
Individuum
Gesellschaft
Politik
Ökonomie
Umwelt
Technologie
Kunden
Wettbewerb
Szenarien aus den Arbeitsgebieten
Automation & Control
Information & Communication
Lightning
Medical
Power
Transportation
Strategische
Vision
Source: FAZ, Siemens, Feb.2002
February 2002 Page 3
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
Type A Adoption Type B Adoption Type C Adoption
Visibility
Maturity
Peak ofInflated
Expectations
Slope ofEnlightenment
ActualBenefit
PerceivedBenefit
TechnologyTrigger
Trough ofDisillusionment
Plateau ofProductivity
Source: Gartner Research
Hype cycles1.
February 2002 Page 4
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
‘90-‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08
Visibility
Year
Peak of inflatedExpectations
Slope ofEnlightenment
TechnologyTrigger
Trough ofDisillusionment
Plateau ofProductivity
Source: Gartner Research
InternetWeb
Dot-ComStarts
U.S. IPOs1997/1998
U.S. Xmas1998
EuropeanIPOs 1999 Dot-Com Share Fallout
Investor Disillusionment
Brick-and-Mortar Failures
Dot-Com Shakeout
Business Disillusionment
„True“ E-Business Emerges
Optimised E-Business
Post-InternetBusinesses
Era on NLOs
2006 to 2008E-Business Ends„E“ is Best
“e” Hype cycle1.
February 2002 Page 5
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
Visibility
Maturity Source: Gartner Research
WirelessCRM
CRM Infrastructures
Self-Service
VolP
WebCollaboration
WAP
State-BasedAnalytics
Contact Center
CRM Analytics
CRM
Rules-Based Personalization
Proprietary Data Structures
CMS
Universal Queue
E-MailMarketing
Banner AdsASP‘s Unassisted
Selling
ERMS
EAI
SFA
Call Center IVR ACD
Web Measurement
Database MarketingAffinity Programs
Type A Adoption Type B Adoption Type C Adoption
CRM Hype cycle1.
Peak of inflatedExpectations
Slope ofEnlightenment
TechnologyTrigger
Trough ofDisillusionment
Plateau ofProductivity
February 2002 Page 6
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
Type A Adoption Type B Adoption Type C Adoption
Benefit
TimeSource: Gartner Research
Wireless cycle1.
Peak of inflatedExpectations
Slope ofEnlightenment
TechnologyTrigger
Trough ofDisillusionment
Plateau ofProductivity
Wireless available in market leaders
2001
Devices available Limited Software
1994 - 1997
2003 – 2004
Wireless fever
2004 - 2005
Expectations of users not widely met
2006
Some enterprises will gain great success
Wireless technology adapted in most software applications
2008
February 2002 Page 7
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
Outlook2.
Range of potential interacting areas and effectsof the Technology Revolution by 2015
Source: RAND
February 2002 Page 8
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
Tickets2.
Technology Revolution by 2015Trend Paths, Meta-Trends & Tickets
Source: RAND
February 2002 Page 9
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
Findings3.
Range of possible future developments and effects from Genetically Modified Foods
Source: RAND
February 2002 Page 10
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
Findings3.
Range of possible future developments and effects of Smart Materials
Source: RAND
February 2002 Page 11
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
Findings3.
Range of possible future developments and effectsof Nanotechnology
Source: RAND
February 2002 Page 12
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
Synergies4.
The synergistic Interplay of Technologies
Source: RAND
February 2002 Page 13
The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
Thank You