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HErZ TB4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Retrospective Analysis of Regional Climate Christian Ohlwein, Petra Friederichs, Andreas Hense, Ieda Pscheidt, Christoph Wosnitza, David Willms Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Bonn Susanne Crewell, Stefan Kneifel, Stephanie Redl, Sandra Steinke Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Jan Keller Deutscher Wetterdienst http://www.herz.uni-bonn.de/
Evalua&on of the Hans-‐Ertel-‐Centre for Weather Research 19 November 2012, DWD, Offenbach
2 HErZ TB4 – Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics
1) Research Objectives
2) Project Status
3) Scientific Highlights
4) Establishment of the Branch
5) Summary and Outlook
Outline
3 HErZ TB4 – Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics
1) Research Objectives
2) Project Status
3) Scientific Highlights
4) Establishment of the Branch
5) Summary and Outlook
Outline
4 HErZ TB4 – Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics
Funding guideline
è Perform a retrospective and future-oriented analysis of regional climate for the coupled system of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface
è Perform process-oriented climate monitoring with optimised monitoring networks including its synergetic use
è Incorporate satellite data
Topic 4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics
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Objectives
è Provide a high resolution regional reanalysis for Europe and Germany
è Develop methods for the assimilation of rain gauge measurements
è Incorporate satellite and GOP data for verification
è Provide diagnostics of the energy, water, and momentum cycles
Topic 4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics
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WP1: Regional reanalysis
WP3: Satellite and GOP data
WP2: Assimilation of precipitation data
WP4: Reforecasts
WP5: Verification and data publication
Team and Work Packages
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8 HErZ TB4 – Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics
1) Research Objectives
2) Project Status
3) Scientific Highlights
4) Establishment of the Branch
5) Summary and Outlook
Outline
Project Status
WP1: Regional reanalysis
WP2: Assimilation of precipitation
WP3: Satellite- and GOP data
WP4: Reforecasts
WP5: Verification and data publication
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2011 2012 2013 2014
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1) Research Objectives
2) Project Status
3) Scientific Highlights
§ Regional reanalysis
§ Assimilation of precipitation
§ Microwave forward operator
§ Verification
4) Establishment of the Branch
5) Summary and Outlook
Outline
WP1 - Regional Reanalysis
è Provide regional reanalysis data for Germany § 5 years (30 years)
§ Based on the operational NWP system
§ COSMO-EU originally as dynamical downscaling
è Implementation
§ Technically more complicated
§ Reanalysis ≠ operational analysis § More effort had to be made to set up the system
§ European domain now as a full reanalysis
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§ Continuous nudging § SST analysis (daily) § Snow analysis (6-hourly)
COSMO-CORDEX (6.2 km)
§ Soil moisture analysis (SMA, daily)
WP1 - Regional Reanalysis
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ERA-Interim (T255)
COSMO-DE (2.8 km)
§ Latent heat nudging (LHN)
WP1 - Regional Reanalysis
è Current state § System is set up and running at ECMWF § Reanalysis production for over 2 weeks
§ 1 year CORDEX reanalysis will be finished by mid-december (milestone)
§ 14 month (12 + 2 month spin-up period)
§ Available as of this morning:
§ 1 November 2010 - 15 March 2011
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WP2 - Assimilation of Precipitation
è Provide tempo-spatial fields of precipitation § Radar observations not available before 2005
§ Substitute for radar in LHN
è Implementation § Spatial Generalized Linear Model (SGLM)
§ Currently driven by data from rain gauges, IR brightness temperatures
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WP2 – Assimilation of Precipitation
è Example § Probability of precipitation (y/n)
§ Estimated radar precipitation
è Data used § Rain gauges
§ Meteosat TB
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3 August 2007 – 02 to 03 UTC
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Regional Reanalysis and Assimilation of Precipitation
WP3 – Microwave Forward Operator
è Development of a microwave forward operator § COSMO output
§ Verification using MW sensors
è Implementation
§ Passive / Active Microwave TRAnsfer operator (PAMTRA)
§ Simulation of arbitrary MW sensors
§ Available as a verification tool for COSMO data
- HErZ
- DWD
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WP3 – Microwave Forward Operator
è Example § CloudSat
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16 June 2007 - 00 UTC
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Verification with the MW Forward Operator PAMTRA
WP5 – Verification
è Verification of the regional reanalysis § Implement tools and develop new methods for verifying reanalyses
§ Use independent observations
§ Compare to global reanalyses
è Implementation
§ Development and tests performed on test month
§ Verification from different perspectives
§ Effect of LHN on the reanalysis
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WP5 – Verification
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LHN 1.00 LHN 0.25 LHN 0.00
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Verification of the COSMO-DE reanalysis
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1) Research Objectives
2) Project Status
3) Scientific Highlights
4) Establishment of the Branch
§ Teaching
§ Cooperation
§ Visibility
§ External funding
5) Summary and Outlook
Outline
Teaching
è Supervision of theses § 6 PhD students
§ 3 Master students (+3 finished)
§ 1 Bachelor student
è Lectures
§ Standard lectures
§ Data assimilation (J. Keller)
§ Joint seminar on research topics in HErZ (TB1, TB4)
è Training events
§ HErZ Training Event on Verification, Spring 2013 (TB4, TB5)
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Cooperation
è Internal § Project Advisory Board (PAB)
§ 6 permanent members from DWD
§ Continuous advise and support
è External
§ European partners in the FP7-SPACE Call
§ NCAR (GSP, DAReS, RAL), NOAA (NCDC)
§ CMA/CAS (China)
§ …
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Visibility
è Publications § Three journal articles, directly related to HErZ
§ First synthesis of all WP still in preparation (poster)
è Presentations
§ Conference contributions
§ Public lecture events
è External funding proposals
§ Especially reanalysis activities on the European domain …
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External funding proposals
è FP7-SPACE Call: UERRA Ensemble system of regional re-analyses, 12 European partners ≈ 340,000 € (6)
è FP7 CORE-CLIMAX Coordination-action for regional reanalyses and their verification ≈ 190.000 € (✓)
è KLIWAS Coupled atmosphere-ocean-reanalysis for North Sea/Baltic Sea ≈ 385,000 € (6)
è SFB/TR Initiative – Terrestrial Water and Energy Cycle Regional reanalysis for Africa (✎)
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1) Research Objectives
2) Project Status
3) Scientific Highlights
4) Establishment of the Branch
5) Summary and Outlook
Outline
Summary and Outlook
è Scientifically § Development of a high-resolution regional reanalysis
§ Verification and validation from different perspectives, e.g., PAMTRA
§ Reanalysis ≠ operational analysis
è Structurally
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Summary and Outlook
è Scientifically
è Structurally
§ Increased impact through an additional CORDEX/EU reanalysis
§ Framework for the participation in international activities on climate monitoring
§ Learnt from global reanalyses
1. End-to-end programme
2. Sustained and with long-term perspective
3. Adequate evaluation of products
4. Dissemination beyond the research domain
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Hans-Ertel-Centre
HErZ TB4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Retrospective Analysis of Regional Climate Christian Ohlwein, Petra Friederichs, Andreas Hense, Ieda Pscheidt, Christoph Wosnitza, David Willms Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Bonn Susanne Crewell, Stefan Kneifel, Stephanie Redl, Sandra Steinke Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Jan Keller Deutscher Wetterdienst http://www.herz.uni-bonn.de/
Evalua&on of the Hans-‐Ertel-‐Centre for Weather Research 19 November 2012, DWD, Offenbach