trends and megatrends ullrich lorenz, umweltbundesamt – dessau, germany alexander storch,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Trends and Megatrends
Ullrich Lorenz, Umweltbundesamt – Dessau, GermanyAlexander Storch, Umweltbundesamt - Vienna, Austria
Copenhagen, EIONET/FLIS, 18.11.2010
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Structure of the presentation
Some definitions ..
State of the art, some examples .. SOER EEA European research on socio-economic trends Examples from Germany Example from Austria
Some conclusions, lessons learned ..
Recommendation of the „coordination group“ of NRC FLIS for the upcoming work ..
A common trend monitoring system ..
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What‘s a microtrend?notable change with very limited effects
short- or mid-term maybe a starting trend or only regional
What‘s a trend?basic change with some remarkable effects
mid- or long-termsometimes a starting megatrend or only regional
What‘s a megatrend? significant global change
long-termwide-ranging impacts
Disclaimer: this is an intuitive text. There are definitions at http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/Final_Literature_Review_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf
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Assessment of global megatrends
SOER 2010 focus on five sets of interrelated megatrends
social
technological
economical
environmental
political
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SOER Part A : 11 Fact sheets for thematic assessments of global mega-trends
demographic shifts
economic growth
increased global regulation
multi-centric power structure
resource competition
pandemic risks
urbanization
climate change
depletion of natural resources
unsustainability and pollution
technological speed
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Example - EEA: SCP in Western Balkan Countries
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Reserarch on socio-economic trends in Europe FORESCENEDevelopment of a Forecasting Framework and Scenarios to Support the EU Sustainable Development Strategy (FP6 Priority 8.1, 2005-2008)
FOR-LEARNprovide on-line support to Foresight practitioners and users at local, regional, sectoral and national or trans-national level who are either running a Foresight exercise or planning to start one (FP6, DG-Res, ipts- Institute for Prospective Technological Studies 2005-2008)
Literature review and mega trends of driving forces of future environmental change andworkshop on mega-trends and surprises - Research foresight for Environment and Sustainability – (EEA, 2007/2008)
The METRIS ReportEmerging Trends in Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities in Europe (DG Res, 2009)
GLOBAL EUROPE 2030/2050The world and Europe up to 2030/2050 - EU policies and research priorities – an expert group (DG Research – The world and Europe up to 2030/2050 - EU policies and research priorities / EU Research in Foresight and Forecast / SSH Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities; starting March 2010 for 24 months)
Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges(European Commission – JRC Joint Research Centre, ipts- Institute for Prospective Technological Studies 2010)
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Example of Trend Analysis in UBA-Germany: Identifying of future „hotspots“
Shift
in population si
ze: in
creas
e, dec
line an
d risin
g migr
ation
Shift
s in population co
mposition: a
ging a
nd youth bulge
s
The e
merging g
lobal middle-
income c
onsumer c
lass
Global urb
anisation
Increasin
g life
expecta
ncy: g
rowing o
ld and se
eking y
outh in
unequal world
Changing p
atter
ns of d
isease
burden gl
obally, a
nd risk o
f new pandem
ics
Global acc
elerati
on and sh
ifts i
n tech
nology deve
lopmen
t cyc
les
The r
ise of t
he nan
o-, bio, IC
T and co
gniti
ve sc
ience
s and te
chnologie
s
Continued economic
growth
Power shift
s – fr
om a uni-polar
to m
ulti-polar
world
Intensifi
ed com
petition fo
r reso
urces
Increasin
g global
economic
regu
lation
Decreasin
g sto
cks o
f nat
ural re
source
s
Increasin
g sev
erity
of the co
nsequence
s of c
limat
e chan
ge
Increasin
g unsu
stainable envir
onmental p
ollution lo
ad
Consum Cluster (focus Germany)
Construction and living 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 2 2 19
Mobility 1 1 2 2 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 2 16
Clothing 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 7
Food and drinking 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 16
communication 2 2 1 2 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 15
Health 2 2 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 16
Education 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
12 11 10 10 7 5 7 5 7 2 5 2 6 7 7
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Analysis of 6 megatrends
Disclaimer: this work is not complete!
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State of the art: Megatrend Analysis
Relative impact of „drivers“ on „Environmental pollution“ with feedback loops
Relative impact of „drivers“ on „Environmental pollution“ without feedback loops
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State of the art: advanced cross-impact-analysis of trends
Energy prices for consumers
rising
Energy eficiency rising
Regulation for energy
eficiency
Extraction of Energy
resources decreasing
Not necessarily!
A causal relationship is determined by the context.
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Some lessons learned (in UBA Germany) so far… (SWOT)
• Megatrend and trend analysis, are key for strategic evaluation of measures
• Trend and megatrend analysis help understanding patterns and help deriving priorisations
• Is a complex exercise• „suffers“ recognition/
acceptance by policy makers (due to complexity and long term orientation vs. Short term policy decisions)
• Megatrend are (only) a basis for further analysis
• Monocausal analysis might be misleading
• Better policy advise• Long term decisions
• time consuming and complex
• Many methods and steep learning curve
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A microtrend story from Austria (1/4)
Households -electricity demand
Year
Whatwill bethe forwardlookingdemand?
?
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A microtrend story from Austria (2/4)
-
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
40,000.00
45,000.00
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TJ
Households -electricity demand
Washing
IT Infrastructure
IT and Entertainment
Cooking
Cooling
Lighting
Year
But thereare somedivergentsubtrends!
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A microtrend story from Austria (3/4)
-
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
40,000.00
45,000.00
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TJ
Households -electricity demand
Washing
IT Infrastructure
IT and Entertainment
Cooking
Cooling
Lighting
Year
but just a compen-sation of enhanceddivergentsubtrends!
Stabilisation,
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A microtrend story from Austria (4/4)
-
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
40,000.00
45,000.00
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TJ
Households -electricity demand
Washing
IT Infrastructure
IT and Entertainment
Cooking
Cooling
Lighting
Year
Break-throughof the subtrenddemand !
Suddenly more fossil power is needed!
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Ability to respond on upcoming changes
early detection -> quick response
delayed reaction -> repercussions multiply
inertia -> postponement of urgent decisions
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Conclusions for the work in the NRC-FLIS
The aim of further activities should be to focus on
• identification of main trends for the European environment
• interlinkages and impacts of this trends
• updated information
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What can FLIS do to boost chances of a smart policy response?
We can co-operate to:
check incipient/emerging microtrends
analyze and monitor effects
presenting results and set-up a warning system
develop common response strategies
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Why should we look for trends?
early warning in offical reports
building realistic scenarios
looking for adequate ways to overcome socio-economic obstacles
=> to provide smart and up-to-date policy advice
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How a new trend or a change can be found?
Experts keep an eye on
I. driving forces behind new trends
II. statistical clues
III. pressures and risks by a multi-disciplinary systematic search
Scanning by sensitve persons on
I. anticipated changes
II. enhanced risks
III. anxieties and fears
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What would a commontrend monitoring system look like?
• Sensoring – collecting signals from individuals
• Scanning – expert research
• Analysing – international network of experts
• Communicating – information to decision makers
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What would be the benefitsof a common trend monitoring system?
current trend monitoring
watchful monitoring of early signs
dynamic risk assessment
broad knowledge pool