Smart(er) TV: Werbung, Geräte, Trends

München, 25.10. 2019

Dr. Daniel Knapp

Das missverständlichste Chart der Werbewelt?

Ende der Symbiose von Massenmarken und Massenmedien

3

Werbewachstum niedriger als Wirtschaftswachstum

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Ad spend is getting decoupled from wider economic growth

US total ad spend GDP

16,5%

13,8%

11,8%

10,4%

7,0% 6,6%

2,7% 2,6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

LATAM Africa ME APAC World CEE US WE

Ad spend CAGR 2016-2021

Source: corporate filings, local industry bodies, GroupM IAB Europe, own calculations. Paid-media only.

Marken fahren Werbeausgaben zurück

5

8,6%

8,4% 8,4%8,3%

8,4%8,3%

8,4%

8,2%

8,0%7,9%

7,4%

7,6%

7,8%

8,0%

8,2%

8,4%

8,6%

8,8%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

A & P spend/revenue for top global advertisers

CMO muss die Sprache des CFO sprechen: Werbe-Erfolg wird anders definiert

14%

9%

45%

33%

“Does your marketing organization have its own P&L to capture revenue?”

No, but plan to in the next 24 months

No, and no plans to add within next 24 months

Yes, has own P&L

Yes, but shares P&L with other business units

Source: Gartner, n = 348

Programmatic ist der neue Standard

7

72,1%

27,9%

2018

programmatic non-programmatic

20,0%

80,0%

2013

programmatic non-programmatic

Share of Digital Ad Spend in Europe by Transaction Mechanism

Digitale Werbespendings laufen vornehmlichüber Daten & Automatisierung

9,4%13,7%

19,9%

34,9%

48,2%

54,4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Europe: Digital Video Ad Spend by Transaction Model (EURm)

programmatic video other video share programmatic video

Note: includes in-stream, out-stream and in-feed video

Video-Werbung: Über 50% der Ausgaben sindprogrammatisch

92% 90% 85% 78% 75% 72%83%

65%55%

45% 40%

8% 10% 15% 22% 25% 28%17%

35%45%

55% 60%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

New

spap

ers

TV

Radi

o

Cine

ma

Out

-of-H

ome

Mag

azin

es

Paid

-for-

Sear

ch

Onl

ine

Disp

lay

& V

ideo

Prog

amm

atic

Mob

ile

Soci

al

Advertising Spend Structure By Medium in 2018

Media Buy Agency Labor*

Digital MediaTraditional Media

*all agency production & service costs including shoot, talent, creation, advisory, planning, measurement, optimization

Datenwert > Mediawert?

10

Digitalierungslogik kehrt sich um

11

12

Geräte-Wachstum kommt aus demWohnzimmer, nicht über das Smartphone

13Source: IHS Markit

Chart1

2015USA2015USA2015USA2015USA2015USA2015USA2015USA2015USA

20172017201720172017201720172017

20192019201920192019201920192019

2015UK2015UK2015UK2015UK2015UK2015UK2015UK2015UK

20172017201720172017201720172017

20192019201920192019201920192019

2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan

20172017201720172017201720172017

20192019201920192019201920192019

2015France2015France2015France2015France2015France2015France2015France2015France

20172017201720172017201720172017

20192019201920192019201920192019

2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany

20172017201720172017201720172017

20192019201920192019201920192019

PCs

Smart TVs

Pay TV STBs

DMAs

BD players

Game Consoles

Tablets

Smartphones

Connected devices installed by type by country (m)

357.259

43.727

69.993

48.256

24.784

61.289

176.995

279.39

355.763

74.997

100.843

85.647

28.05

62.849

171.104

338.377

349.143

108.106

129.17

118.456

28.098

68.743

156.232

377.904

63.326

9.784

11.598

4.37

3.918

12.057

17.344

56.684

61.446

14.192

18.097

10.288

4.768

12.284

18.465

68.733

59.636

19.652

22.836

17.398

5.165

12.989

16.3

79.015

91.226

37.036

4.624

3.792

20.443

20.718

30.427

78.496

89.055

42.493

5.388

7.491

24.23

23.652

37.304

101.282

86.528

48.242

6.172

11.617

25.029

31.244

40.655

137.092

40.653

9.999

20.538

1.879

2.995

8.361

21.997

40.778

43.213

15.007

23.129

4.235

3.484

9.571

24.591

55.416

45.42

20.333

24.757

7.255

3.55

11.188

23.769

63.334

70.609

17.052

4.952

3.55

3.95

7.586

27.922

65.47

70.739

23.43

8.017

9.05

4.959

9.382

31.345

80.612

70.362

28.397

10.161

15.17

5.22

11.254

30.363

100.907

Sheet1

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Category 14.32.42

Category 22.54.42

Category 33.51.83

Category 44.52.85

USAUKJapanFranceGermany

Device Type201520172019201520172019201520172019201520172019201520172019

PCs357356349636160918987414345717170

Smart TVs4475108101420374248101520172328

Pay TV STBs701011291218235562123255810

DMAs48861184101747122474915

BD players252828455202425334455

Game Consoles616369121213212431810118911

Tablets177171156171816303741222524283130

Smartphones279338378576979781011374155636581101

UKBD players

UKDMAs

UKFTA Set-top Boxes

UKGame Consoles

UKPay-TV set-top boxes

UKPCs

UKSmart TVs

UKSmartphones

UKTablets

USABD players

USADMAs

USAFTA Set-top Boxes

USAGame Consoles

USAPay-TV set-top boxes

USAPCs

USASmart TVs

USASmartphones

USATablets

Chart1

2015China2015China2015China2015China2015China2015China2015China2015China

20172017201720172017201720172017

20192019201920192019201920192019

PCs

Smart TVs

Pay TV STBs

DMAs

BD players

Game Consoles

Tablets

Smartphones

405.204

56.698

8.356

33.278

0.504

0.197

144.897

958.38

439.308

107.733

13.206

46.383

1.003

0.568

179.132

1133.025

451.911

167.874

18.107

55.387

1.447

1

185.653

1223.082

Sheet1

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Category 14.32.42

Category 22.54.42

Category 33.51.83

Category 44.52.85

China

Device Type201520172019

PCs405439452

Smart TVs57108168

Pay TV STBs81318

DMAs334655

BD players111

Game Consoles011

Tablets145179186

Smartphones9581,1331,223

Channel 4: plötzlich ‘OTT-first’

2016

~10-15%

2018

~55-60%**for some shows, e.g. British Bake-Off

OTT+ Usage (share of total consumption)

Roku: Indikator für die Streaming-Explosion

15

284 326

225

417

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2017 2018

Roku revenue ($m)

Player revenue Platform revenue

9,2

24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2017 2018

Roku: Streaming hours on Smart TVs (bn)

+161%

Source: Roku letter to shareholders, Q4 2018

Risiko der Marktsättigung

“[…] SVOD is still a huge question mark for us. We are putting together our budget forecast for the next five years on what SVOD growth might be, and we’re being very conservative on what that growth looks like after next year. With AVOD, though, it feels like there’s a much cleaner path of growth.”

-US TV Executive-

16

17Source: Deutsche Bank

Trad. Free-TV: Finanzanalysten sind skeptisch

Negativtrend in allen ‘Big 5’-Märkten

18

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Trad. linear TV NAR growth (YoY)

France Germany Italy Spain UK

Source: GroupM & local trade bodies, own forecasts based on econometric analysis & media buyer interviews

‘ Big 5’: Lineare TV-Werbung verliert €2Mrd.

19

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

20.000

2017 2023

EU Big 5: TV NAR losses over time

TV NAR TV losses

Werbung im ‘Next TV’: Über was sprechen wir eigentlich?

(Broadcaster) AVOD

Addressable TV

Programmatic TV

Data-driven linear TV

Connected TV

Uses cable and satellite infrastructure to deliver household addressable ads via set-top boxes. Each household watching

the same program will see different ads.

Uses data, science and software to

optimise campaigns on an audience basis, to reach specific types of people or to drive particular outcomes.

AVOD/OTT, which delivers ads, many of

them targeted, into the streams of video services

like RTL, Mediaset,

Channel 4, etc.

Delivers digital ads into apps or streams on

TVs connected to the Internet, ranging from banners in EPGs over

YouTube videos or inventory on premium programmers’ content

through streaming devices (e.g. Amazon

Fire, Smart TVs).

Form of traditional television advertising

with a data-driven slant. Certain TV ad

slots are made available for

programmatic purchase, which are carried out by DSPs.

“Advanced TV” (if ad appears in trad. TV broadcast stream)

Connected TV: Standards, Infrastruktur treibenMarktpotential

140

5575

4512

300

240

135110 98

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

UK France Germany Spain Italy

NAR on CTV advertising (€m)

2018 2023

Source: calculations based on MTM/SpotX

Was hält den Massenmarkt (noch) zurück?

• Sales strategies are immature• Inventory is fragmented across

different services & hard to

aggregate

• Lack of clarity about the scale & value of available inventory

• Data availability & quality

Sample inventory specifications

Source: The TradeDesk

Welche Player gewinnen?

23

Inhalte strategisch wichtig

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017

Walt Disney Co NBC Universal Sky Discovery Comms. Viacom Inc. HBO Netflix Amazon

Original & Acquired Program spend ($m)

24Note: Excludes SportSource: IHS Markit

Smart TV-Hersteller wollen neue Gatekeeper sein

Silicon-Valley-Plattformen werden deutlichenAnteil an der neuen TV-Welt haben

2017

Legacy TV YouTube Facebook Others

2023

Legacy TV YouTube Facebook Others

Europe: share of total TV ad revenues• Platforms will take ~1/4 of

total TV ad spend in next 5 years

• In ‘advanced TV’, their share may amount to 33%-50%

• DMAs, Apps, content, buying infrastructure will drive their share

Source: local trade bodies, GroupM, company filings, modelled data

Amazons nächste Innovationsphase zielt auch auf TV

0,5 0,60,7

1,10,9 1,0

1,1

1,72

2,22,5

3,7

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

Amazon’s Global Advertising Revenue ($bn)

CAGR: +58% CAGR: +125%

Source: corporate filings, own calculations

Potentiale durch 2 Monetarisierungswege

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

0200400600800

1.0001.2001.400

US

sate

llite

AT&T

Amaz

on

Glo

bal p

ay T

V

Appl

e

Net

flix

Dis

ney

Dis

cove

ry

Fox

YouT

ube

Face

book

Rea

ch (b

n)

ARPU

($) p

er y

ear

ARPU equivalent per subscriber / device / active user / account (reach)

ARPU Reach

28

Technology & bundles Content & advertising

‘Addressable’ hat nun Reichweite in UK nachstrategischem Deal

Household Addressable:

1st party & 3rd party (Experian)

2014 2019 2019

Expansion to 100+ channels & 30m

targetable TV viewers, 40& of UK

population

True scale through major free-to-air broadcaster media planers can’t go

without

2017

First free-to-air

partner

Neue Marken brauchen andere TV-Denkweise

30

200

9588

76 7056 56

35 2921 15 12 11 11 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0

50

100

150

200

250

Europe: Number of DTC companies per Category

Source: Webcrawl & semantic analysis for IAB Europe

UK: TV-Neukunden nutzen die Möglichkeiten

31

Quelle: Sky

‘Tech Lash’ verhindern durchnachhaltige Innovation

32

TV: Vorteil in digitaler Messkrise

33

2.0721.795

933617

237

5.259

133 105 57 35

807508

25 21 170

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

Impressions Valid & Viewable Audible & Reached 1/4 Audible & Reached 1/2 Audible & Completed

Ad impressions in ‘000s by KPI

YouTube Facebook Unruly

Source: Ebiquity

Default reporting metrics What drives brands

Krise der digitalen Werbung: Risiko durch Intermediäre

34

Wachstum braucht Klarheit

Smart(er) TV: �Werbung, Geräte, Trends Das missverständlichste Chart der Werbewelt?Ende der Symbiose von Massenmarken und MassenmedienWerbewachstum niedriger als WirtschaftswachstumMarken fahren Werbeausgaben zurückCMO muss die Sprache des CFO sprechen: Werbe-Erfolg wird anders definiertProgrammatic ist der neue Standard Digitale Werbespendings laufen vornehmlich über Daten & AutomatisierungVideo-Werbung: Über 50% der Ausgaben sind programmatischDatenwert > Mediawert?Digitalierungslogik kehrt sich umFoliennummer 12Geräte-Wachstum kommt aus dem Wohnzimmer, nicht über das SmartphoneChannel 4: plötzlich ‘OTT-first’Roku: Indikator für die Streaming-ExplosionRisiko der MarktsättigungTrad. Free-TV: Finanzanalysten sind skeptischNegativtrend in allen ‘Big 5’-Märkten‘ Big 5’: Lineare TV-Werbung verliert €2Mrd. Werbung im ‘Next TV’: Über was sprechen wir eigentlich?�Connected TV: Standards, Infrastruktur treiben MarktpotentialWas hält den Massenmarkt (noch) zurück?Welche Player gewinnen?Inhalte strategisch wichtigSmart TV-Hersteller wollen neue Gatekeeper seinSilicon-Valley-Plattformen werden deutlichen Anteil an der neuen TV-Welt haben �Amazons nächste Innovationsphase zielt auch auf TVPotentiale durch 2 Monetarisierungswege�‘Addressable’ hat nun Reichweite in UK nach strategischem DealNeue Marken brauchen andere TV-DenkweiseUK: TV-Neukunden nutzen die Möglichkeiten‘Tech Lash’ verhindern durch nachhaltige InnovationTV: Vorteil in digitaler MesskriseKrise der digitalen Werbung: Risiko durch IntermediäreWachstum braucht KlarheitVielen Dank!